摘要
老龄化背景下,社会保障与经济发展协调关系的争议成为“穆勒难题”。基于中国省级面板数据分析社会保障与经济发展之间的协调程度及其协调模式,研究发现:社会保障与经济发展协调程度测算结果中,社会保障与经济发展协调程度呈现递增趋势,但各地区依然处于较低的协调状态,且不同地区存在较大差异。进一步使用聚类算法将社会保障与经济发展地区协调模式分为4类,协调程度从低到高依次为:低经济发展—低社会保障型、低经济发展—高社会保障型、高经济发展—低社会保障型、高经济发展—高社会保障型地区。观察不同类型地区发现,经济发展水平较高的地区其与社会保障的协调程度较高。且各省份在社会保障与经济发展协调模式变迁中呈现出多样化的发展态势,形成协调模式的时空变迁。据此提出,提升地区社会保障与经济发展协调程度,经济发展是关键,同时需要分配好“蛋糕”,促进社会保障发展,实现两者良性互动与协调发展。
In the context of population aging,the debate on the coordinated relationship between social security and economic development has emerged as a contemporary“Mill’s Dilemma”.Utilizing provincial panel data from China,this study analyzes the coordination level and patterns between social security and economic development.The results indicate that while nationwide coordination between the two domains shows an upward trend,overall coordination remains relatively low with pronounced regional disparities.Through clustering algorithms,four distinct coordination patterns are identified:low economic development-low social security regions,low economic development-high social security regions,high economic development-low social security regions,high economic development-high social security regions.Regions characterized by advanced economic development generally demonstrate stronger coordination with social security systems.Furthermore,provincial dynamics reveal diverse pathways in coordination pattern transitions,reflecting spatiotemporal evolution in coordination relationships.The analysis emphasizes that economic development serves as the primary driver for enhancing coordination,while equitable resource allocation is crucial to advancing social security development,thereby fostering mutually reinforcing growth between economic progress and social security systems.
作者
宋佳莹
高传胜
路玉婷
Song Jiaying;Gao Chuansheng;Lu Yuting
出处
《兰州学刊》
2025年第4期101-115,共15页
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“民生服务领域实施供给侧结构性改革研究”(项目编号:22AZD037)。
关键词
社会保障
经济发展
协调程度
协调模式
聚类算法
social security
economic development
coordination degree
coordination mode
clustering algorithm
作者简介
宋佳莹,南通大学商学院副教授;高传胜,南京大学政府管理学院教授、博士生导师,国家高端智库建设培育单位“长江产业经济研究院”特约研究员;通讯作者:路玉婷,南京大学政府管理学院博士生。
