摘要
耕地生态系统服务权衡特征及驱动因素识别是实施耕地资源科学管治决策的重要基础。构建耕地生态系统服务的评估框架,运用InVEST模型、Spearman相关分析、均方根误差、GBDT等方法,分析长三角地区2000—2020年耕地生态系统服务的权衡/协同关系、主导驱动因素及阈值特征。结果表明:(1)长三角地区耕地粮食生产和文化娱乐服务提升,产水服务和固碳释氧服务表现为先下降后上升,土壤保持量呈下降趋势。空间上,产水、固碳释氧和土壤保持整体呈“西南高东北低”格局,粮食生产与之相反,文化娱乐服务高值分布转变为“大集聚、小分散”格局。(2)长三角地区耕地生态系统服务总体表现为权衡减弱、协同增强,不同时期权衡/协同关系会出现强度的变化甚至发生关系逆转。服务间的权衡关系在不同地理区域存在显著差异,高权衡区域随着时间演变逐渐减少。(3)2000—2020年耕地资源禀赋对权衡强度的贡献率下降,社会经济因素贡献率显著提升,光照条件、农业政策和城镇化水平是影响耕地生态系统服务权衡强度的关键因素。当光照时长范围为1800—2000h、耕地复种指数超过1.6或城镇化率提升至80%,各项生态系统服务的权衡作用减弱。考虑驱动因素的阈值范围,将有助于耕地生态系统服务的协同发展,为区域粮食安全保障、生态安全维护和社会经济发展提供科学参考。
The identification of ecosystem service trade⁃off characteristics and drivers of cropland is an important basis for implementing scientific governance decisions for cropland resources.This paper constructed an assessment framework for cropland ecosystem services and analyzed the trade⁃off/synergy relationship,dominant drivers,and their threshold characterisitcs in the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD)from 2000 to 2020.The InVEST model,Spearman′s correlation analysis,root⁃mean⁃square error,and GBDT methods were used.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,grain production in the YRD continued to improve,with core areas distributed in the central and northern plains.Water yield service and carbon sequestration and oxygen release both showed a decreasing and then increasing trend.Their spatial distributions were characterized as“high in the south and low in the north,high in the east and low in the west”.The amount of soil retention continued to decline,with high values concentrated in the forest ecological barrier area in the southwestern part of the country.Cultural and recreational service showed a continuous growth,and the distribution of high values changed to a pattern of“large concentration and small dispersion”,and the ecosystem services of cropland showed the direction of development of leisure and living.(2)The trade⁃off/synergy relationship of cropland ecosystem services in the YRD exhibited significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity.Temporally,it was generally characterized by the weakening of trade⁃off and the strengthening of synergy,and the trade⁃off/synergy relationship changed in intensity or even reverse in different periods.Cropland in the YRD brings ecological risks while improving agricultural efficiency.With the transformation of cropland use and the development of agricultural modernization,cropland shows a trend of comprehensive optimization of food production,ecological value,culture and recreation.Spatially,due to different natural conditions and economic levels,the production capacity of cropland and the level of factor input vary widely at the spatial level,so that the overall trade⁃offs between ecosystem services are manifested in two distribution patterns:high in the north and south,low in the middle,or high in the south and low in the north.The overall improvement in the technology and capital inputs of cropland production has contributed to a further narrowing of the intensity of trade⁃offs across the region,and the characteristics of cropland development in different regions have gradually come to the fore.(3)The contribution of cropland resource endowment to the trade⁃off intensity declined in 2000—2020,and the contribution of socio⁃economic factors increased substantially,with light conditions,agricultural policies and urbanization level being the key factors affecting the trade⁃off intensity of cropland ecosystem services,showing a non⁃linear change characteristic of the existence of a threshold effect.With the passage of time,the threshold range of light duration generally remained unchanged at 1800—2000h,and the thresholds of cropland replanting index and urbanization rate showed an increasing trend,in which the cropping intensity increased from 1.3—1.6 to the range of more than 1.6,and the urbanization rate from 40%—60%.The trade⁃offs among ecosystem services overall weakened when the threshold was raised to near 80%.In order to promote synergistic development among cropland ecosystem services,it was necessary to control the driving factors within a certain threshold range.
作者
陶洁怡
章锦河
董平
陆玉麒
戈大专
TAO Jieyi;ZHANG Jinhe;DONG Ping;LU Yuqi;GE Dazhuan(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Huangshan National Park Ecosystem Observation and Research Station,Ministry of Education,Huangshan 245899,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810016,China;College of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2025年第16期7836-7851,共16页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42271251)。
关键词
耕地生态系统服务
权衡协同
驱动因素
阈值效应
长三角地区
cropland ecosystem services
trade⁃off and synergy
driving factors
threshold effects
Yangtze River Delta region
作者简介
通讯作者:章锦河,E⁃mail:zhangjinhe@nju.edu.cn。
