摘要
财政转移支付是政府实现调控目标的重要政策工具,对于增加民生支出、推动地方经济增长具有重要作用。本文在理论与制度背景分析的基础上,运用面板联立方程组模型实证检验了财政转移支付、民生支出对地方经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:第一,转移支付对经济增长有显著的正向影响,一般性转移支付比重的提高能够促进地方经济增长。第二,民生支出占比提高与经济增长之间显著负相关,民生支出占比提高抑制地方经济增长。第三,转移支付对民生支出具有显著的促进作用,一般性转移支付比重的提高能够促进地方民生支出占比的提升。第四,转移支付通过增加民生支出占比间接促进地方经济增长,总效应取决于直接效应和间接效应。第五,财政转移支付、民生支出对经济增长的影响存在地区异质性。较于东部地区,中部地区转移支付对地方经济增长有促进作用,但民生支出占比增加会抑制地区经济增长;西部地区转移支付和民生支出均对地方经济增长具有促进效应。为促进地方经济持续稳定增长,在坚持适度规模的前提下加大中央对地方转移支付,中央对地方转移支付规模太大,不仅导致中央财政压力,而且一定程度上使得地方产生对于转移支付的依赖性,反而不利于地方经济增长;调整优化转移支付的规模与结构,以及转移支付资金分配办法,促进更多资金流向欠发达地区和财政困难地区,充分发挥中央对地方财政转移支付的激励效应;加大财政民生投入,切实保障和改善民生,增进民生福祉。
Fiscal transfer payments are an important policy tool for governments to achieve their regulatory objectives,playing a significant role in increasing social welfare expenditures and promoting local economic growth.This article con-ducts an empirical analysis using a panel simulta-neous equation model to examine the impact of fiscal transfer payments and social welfare expendi-tures on local economic growth,based on a theoret-ical and institutional background analysis.The research findings indicate:First,fiscal transfer payments have a significant positive impact on eco-nomic growth,and an increase in the proportion of general transfer payments can promote local eco-nomic growth.Second,there is a significant negative correlation between the increase in the proportion of social welfare expenditures and economic growth;an increase in the proportion of livelihood expenditures suppresses local economic growth.Third,fiscal transfer payments have a significant promotional effect on social welfare expenditures;an increase in the proportion of general transfer payments can promote an increase in the proportion of local social welfare expenditures.Fourth,fiscal transfer payments indirectly promote local economic growth by increasing the proportion of social welfare expenditures;the overall effect depends on both direct and indirect effects.Fifth,the impact of fiscal transfer payments and social welfare expenditures on economic growth exhibits regional heterogeneity.Compared to eastern regions,transfer payments in central regions promote local economic growth,but an increase in the proportion of social welfare expenditures inhibits regional economic growth;in western regions,both transfer payments and social welfare expenditures have a promotional effect on local economic growth.To promote sustained and stable local economic growth,it is necessary to increase central government transfer payments to local governments while maintaining an appropriate scale.However,if the scale of central government transfer payments to local governments becomes too large,it not only increases pressure on the central govermment's fiscal but also,to some extent,leads to local governments becoming dependent on transfer payments,which is detrimental to local economic growth;adjusting and optimizing the scale and structure of transfer payments,as well as the allocation methods for transfer payment funds,to channel more funds to underdeveloped regions and regions with fiscal difficulties,fully leveraging the incentive effect of central government fiscal transfer payments to local governments;increasing fiscal expenditures on social welfare to genuinely ensure and improve people's livelihoods and enhance their well-being.
作者
刘书明
介茹
Liu Shuming;Jie Ru
出处
《宏观经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第7期14-30,共17页
Macroeconomics
基金
国家社科规划基金一般项目“基于高质量发展的黄河流域绿色增长绩效测度及其财税支持政策创新研究”(21BJY075)的阶段性成果。
关键词
一般性转移支付
专项转移支付
财政民生支出
地方经济增长
地区异质性
General transfer payment
Special transfer payment
Fiscal livelihood expenditures
Local economic growth
Regional heterogeneity
