摘要
研究目的:识别2010—2022年中国农业温室大棚的空间分布、变化特征及影响因素,为设施农业高质量发展、规划及治理等提供决策参考。研究方法:Google Earth Engine云平台、随机森林模型、空间自相关分析和地理探测器模型。研究结果:(1)2010—2022年全国农业温室大棚面积增长显著,从555459.78 hm^(2)增加至1295479.91 hm^(2),空间格局由“东部集中”向“东西双极、中部滞后”演变,呈现“西进北扩”态势。(2)2010—2022年全国农业温室大棚空间规模从“小规模主导、局部集聚”向“规模提升、分布集中”演进,空间分布呈现相对集聚性,全局莫兰指数从0.24先降至0.19,后增至0.25,局部莫兰指数表现为高—高、低—低聚集,山东、辽宁、云南为高—高聚集重要区域。(3)2010—2022年我国农业温室大棚扩张的驱动因素从单一因素向多元协同演变,交互机制从“资源—产出—人力—效益—政策”耦合逐渐演化为“资源—财政—气候—效率—技术”多元驱动,政策支持、经济发展与资源利用效率等因素的重要性越发凸显。研究结论:农业温室大棚高质量发展亟待政策支持和科学引领,寻求资源配置优化与生产效率提升,为中国式农业现代化和耕地资源三位一体保护提供科学支撑。
The purposes of this study are to identify the spatial distribution of agricultural greenhouses in China across multiple time scales(from 2010 to 2022),to explore their variation characteristics and influencing factor,and to provide scientific decision-making references for the high-quality development,planning and governance of facility agriculture.The research methods include Google Earth Engine cloud platform,random forest model,spatial auto-correlation analysis and geographical detector model.The research results of show that:1)the area of agricultural greenhouses in 2 China experienced a remarkable growth during 2010 and 2022,with the number increasing from 555459.78 hm to 1295479.91 hm^(2).The spatial pattern evolved from“concentration in the east”to“a bipolar pattern with the east and west,and lagging in the central region”,presenting a trend of“advance to the west and expansion to north”.2)From 2010 to 2022,the spatial distribution scale of agricultural greenhouses in China evolved from“dominated by small-scale and local clustering”to“scale improvement and concentrated distribution”.The spatial distribution showed relative clustering.Global Moran’s I decreased from 0.24 to 0.10 and then increased to 0.25.Local Moran’s I presented high-high and low-low clustering,while Shandong,Liaoning and Yunnan were the important regions with high-high clustering.3)The driving factors behind the expansion of agricultural greenhouses in China evolved from a single-factor to a multi-factor synergy from 2010 to 2022.The interaction mechanism gradually transformed from the coupling of“resources-output-human resources-efficiency-policy”to the multi-factor driving of“resources-finance-climate-efficiency-technology”.The significance of factors such as policy support,economic development and resource utilization efficiency became increasingly prominent.In conclusion,the high-quality development of agricultural greenhouses urgently requires the policy support and scientific guidance.It is necessary to seek optimization of resource allocation and improvement in production efficiency,which could provide scientific support to agriculture modernization in China and the integrated protection of cultivated land resources.
作者
孙燕
袁一心
骆占斌
卜心国
王静
陈浮
SUN Yan;YUAN Yixin;LUO Zhanbin;BU Xinguo;WANG Jing;CHEN Fu(School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Observation Research Station of Land Ecology and Land Use in the Yangtze River Delta,MNR,Changzhou 213200,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
北大核心
2025年第7期124-136,共13页
China Land Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD141)。
关键词
温室大棚
时空格局
随机森林模型
地理探测器
影响因素
greenhouse
spatiotemporal pattern
random forest model
geographical detector model
influencing factors
作者简介
第一作者:孙燕(1980-),女,江苏盐城人,副教授,博士研究生。主要研究方向为土地经济与政策。E-mail:suny@hhu.edu.cn;通讯作者:陈浮(1974-),男,江苏射阳人,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向为耕地保护转型与创新。E-mail:chenfu@hhu.edu.cn。
