摘要
民主和平论是美欧输出西式民主的主要学理依据。随着该理论在美欧外交实践中“大行其道”,国际学界对其质疑与挑战逐渐增多,并形成了几种系统的挑战理论。这些挑战理论尚未被纳入统一分析模型,且其西方中心主义倾向忽视了殖民主义遗留等关键历史因素。国内学界在实证批判民主和平论方面存在不足和滞后,阻碍了对美欧民主输出学理基础的根本否定。本文从比较历史政治分析的视角出发,将历史重新置于政治分析的核心,系统检验民主和平论及其挑战理论的核心假设,探讨国家间和平的“实然”影响因素。结果显示,领土争端、契约主义和殖民历史对国家间冲突的解释力更强,其中,殖民历史的解释力尤为显著。民主和平论对1816—2001年国家间冲突与和平的解释力极其有限,已在很大程度上被证伪。民主和平论的证伪标志着世界政治旧价值维度的衰退和新价值维度的崛起,为全球社会在“求同存异、和谐共处”原则下探索新型世界秩序、构建人类命运共同体提供了理论与实证支持。
Democratic peace theory has served as the primary theoretical foundation for the Western promotion of democracy by the United States and Europe.However,as this theory gained prominence in the foreign policy practices of these regions,it has increasingly faced skepticism and critique from the international academic community,giving rise to several systematic counter-theories.This article argues that these counter-theories have not yet been incorporated into a unified analytical model,and their Western-centric tendencies neglect critical historical factors,such as the legacies of colonialism.Furthermore,the empirical critique of democratic peace theory within Chinese academia remains insufficient,impeding a fundamental refutation of the theoretical foundation underlying Western democratic exportation.From the perspective of comparative historical political analysis,this article seeks to bring history back to the center of political analysis by systematically examining the core assumptions of democratic peace theory and its counter-theories and exploring the"actual"factors influencing peace between states.The results indicate that democratic peace theory provides an extremely limited explanation of interstate conflict and peace from 1816 to 2001 and has,to a large extent,been falsified.The falsification of democratic peace theory signifies the decline of traditional value dimensions in world politics and the rise of new value dimensions.This provides both theoretical and empirical support for the global community’s exploration of a new world order and the construction of a community with a shared future for humanity,under the principle of"seeking common ground while preserving differences and living harmoniously".
出处
《政治学研究》
北大核心
2025年第4期110-126,M0009,M0010,共19页
CASS Journal of Political Science
关键词
比较历史政治
民主和平论
契约和平论
领土和平论
殖民历史
comparative historical politics
democratic peace
contractual peace
territorial peace
colonial history
