摘要
理清新质生产力赋能区域旅游韧性发展的宏观影响机理,验证二者的微观交互机制,对推动旅游高质量发展具有重要的理论意义与实践价值。文章基于2012—2022年中国31个省份面板数据,构建新质生产力和区域旅游韧性综合评价指标体系,采用面板向量自回归模型验证新质生产力对区域旅游韧性发展的宏观影响机理,并结合系统动力学模型探究二者微观动态交互机制;在此基础上选取甘肃省代表旅游资源丰富但旅游创新不足的旅游欠发达区域,通过系统动力学模拟甘肃省2023—2035年多情景下的动态演化路径。研究发现:(1)新质生产力可有效推动区域旅游韧性发展,但受创新要素错配的负面调节制约。(2)新质生产力以产业结构高度化与产业结构合理化为路径促进区域旅游韧性发展,二者中介效应占比分别为33.98%和21.36%。(3)仿真结果显示,生态优先发展情景下,甘肃省的区域旅游韧性发展优于其他情景,但新质生产力增速相对滞缓;协同发展情景下,经济、科技创新和生态保护均衡发展,新质生产力与旅游韧性均呈现稳步提升态势,但旅游韧性发展动力存在一定不足。研究结果有助于厘清新质生产力与区域旅游韧性的交互关系,为新时代背景下推动区域旅游韧性发展提供理论支撑和实践参考。
This study explores the influencing mechanisms of new quality productive forces(NQPF)on regional tourism resilience(RTR)and empirically validates their micro-level interactive dynamics,which offers significant theoretical and practical contributions to advance high-quality tourism development.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions of China in 2012-2022,this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index systems of NQPF and RTR.It uses the panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model to verify the influencing mechanisms of new quality productive forces on regional tourism resilience,and the system dynamics model to investigate their micro-level dynamic interactions.It takes Gansu Province,a less-developed tourism region characterized by abundant tourism resources and insufficient tourism innovation,to conduct the scenario-based simulations of dynamic evolution pathways in 2023-2035.It's found that:1)NQPF significantly enhances RTR,the misallocation of innovative elements inhibits the enabling effect of NQPF on the RTR.2)NQPF promotes the development of RTR through industrial structure advancement and rationalization,with mediating effect proportions of 33.98%and 21.36%,respectively.3)Under the ecological priority scenario,RTR of Gansu is in the best state,but the growth rate of NQPF is relatively sluggish.Under the collaborative development scenario,it demonstrates balanced progress in economic,technological,and ecological dimensions,NQPF and RTR both show a steady upward trend,but there are certain deficiencies in the driving force for RTR.These findings systematically clarify the relationship between NQPF and RTR,and provide theoretical and practical guidance for fostering RTR in the new development paradigm.
作者
杨秀平
王泽云
彭思成
陈媛
YANG Xiuping;WANG Zeyun;PENG Sicheng;CHEN Yuan(School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,Gansu,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第6期213-225,共13页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41961020、41501597)
教育部“春晖计划”合作科研项目(GS2019002)
甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023YB015)
甘肃省人文社会科学项目(24ZC03)
兰州理工大学高等教育研究重点项目(GJ2023A-8)
兰州理工大学研究生科研探索项目
甘肃省教育厅优秀研究生“创新之星”项目(2025CXZX-579、2025CXZX-580)。
关键词
新质生产力
区域旅游韧性
创新要素错配
发展机理
系统动力学
产业结构调整
new quality productive forces
regional tourism resilience
misallocation of innovative elements
development mechanism
system dynamics
industrial structure adjustment
作者简介
杨秀平(1979-),女,博士,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为区域旅游可持续发展。E-mail:yangxp789@163.com;通信作者:王泽云(2000-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为旅游经济分析。E-mail:zyun_w@163.com折叠。
