摘要
老龄化已成为中国人口发展的重要特征,人口老龄化对地方财政收支以及经济各领域的影响将逐步展现,进一步加剧地方政府债务问题。探讨其区域差异性有助于提前识别潜在的财政风险。本文基于2015-2023年中国省级面板数据,实证检验人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响,发现两者呈现出显著为正的非线性相关关系。采用系统聚类方法,将研究样本划分为发展中、次发达、发达区域三大组别,发现老龄化对地方政府债务的影响具有明显的区域差异,发展中、次发达、发达区域所受影响依次减弱。城镇化水平和市场化水平对两者之间的关系具有负向调节作用,随着城镇化率、市场化程度的提高,老龄化对地方政府债务的影响逐渐减弱。进一步运用面板门槛模型发现,老龄化对地方政府债务的影响存在城镇化单重门槛效应和市场化双重门槛效应,且相较而言城镇化门槛更易跨过。在此基础上,建议人口老龄化背景下分类施策缓解地方政府债务问题。
Population aging has become a significant characteristic of China's demographic development.The impacts of population aging on local fiscal revenue and expenditure,as well as various sectors of the economy,will gradually manifest,further intensifying the issue of local government debt.Exploring regional differences is helpful for early identification of potential fiscal risks.This paper empirically examines the effect of population aging on local government debt based on provincial panel data from China from 2015 to 2023,finding a significant positive nonlinear relationship between the two.Using a systematic clustering method,the research sample is divided into three groups:developing,semi-developed,and developed regions.It is found that the impact of aging on local government debt varies significantly across regions,with the influence weakening in that order:developing,semi-developed,and developed regions.Urbanization level and marketization level have a negative moderating effect on the relationship;as the rates of urbanization and marketization increase,the influence of aging on local government debt gradually diminishes.Furthermore,applying a panel threshold model reveals that the impact of aging on local government debt exhibits a single threshold effect of urbanization and a double threshold effect of marketization,with the urbanization threshold being more easily crossed.Based on these findings,it is suggested to adopt differentiated policies to mitigate local government debt issues in the context of population aging.
作者
王春雷
林根仕
黄素心
WANG Chunlei;LIN Genshi;HUANG Suxin(School of Economics,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004;School of Economics,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006)
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第4期169-174,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
广西哲学社会科学规划课题“广西人口老龄化对广西经济增长的影响与对策研究”(20FRK001)。
关键词
老龄化
地方政府债务
区域差异性
门槛效应
population aging
local government debt
regional disparities
threshold effects
作者简介
王春雷(1982-),男,汉族,重庆人,经济学博士,广西大学经济学院副教授。研究方向:区域经济、制度经济;通信作者:黄素心(1982-),女,汉族,广西融水人,经济学博士,广西民族大学经济学院教授。研究方向:区域经济、宏观金融管理。
