摘要
目的:分析2020—2022年上海市闵行区除新型冠状病毒感染外的法定传染病流行特点及趋势,并与2014—2019年流行特点进行对比分析,为进一步完善辖区传染病防控提供科学依据。方法:基于中国疾病监测信息报告管理系统,对2014—2022年闵行区法定传染病报告数据进行描述性分析,对比不同时期传染病发病特征和变化趋势,并利用2014—2019年数据构建移动平均法季节趋势模型预测2020—2022年发病率。结果:2014—2022年闵行区法定传染病年均报告发病率为344.58/10万,呈波浪式下降趋势,2020—2022年发病率较2017—2019年下降58.61%。2014—2019年发病率呈现显著季节性高峰,而2020—2022年季节性高峰消失,除1月外,其余月份发病率均明显降低。2020—2022年模型预测值显著高于实际发病率。2020—2022年不同传播途径传染病发病率均明显降低,呼吸道和肠道传染病降幅最为明显,以猩红热和手足口病表现最为突出。结论:2020—2022年闵行区法定传染病发病率大幅下降,以猩红热、手足口病等儿童传染病为主,未来需重点加强儿童常见传染病的监测与防控。
OBJECTIVE The epidemiological characteristics and trends of notifiable infectious diseases except COVID-19 in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2020 to 2022 were analyzed and compared with those from 2014 to 2019,so as to provide scientific basis for further improving the prevention and control of infectious diseases in the district.METHODS The data from National Communicable Disease Reporting Information System were used for a descriptive analysis on the incidences of reported notifiable infectious diseases from 2014 to 2022.The characteristics and trends of infectious diseases in different periods were compared and analyzed.According to the data sequence from 2014 to 2019,the incidence rate from 2020 to 2022 was predicted.RESULTS The average annual incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Minhang District from 2014 to 2022 was 344.58/105,sh owing a wave-like downward trend.The incidence rate decreased more significantly from 2020 to 2022,which was 58.61%lower than that from 2017 to 2019.There was a significant seasonal peak in the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases from 2014 to 2019,and there was no significant peak from 2020 to 2022.Except for January,the average incidence of other months decreased significantly.The prediction results of the seasonal trend model of the moving average method were significantly higher than the measured values.From 2020 to 2022,the incidence of infectious diseases of different transmission routes decreased significantly,with the most obvious decrease in respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases,especially scarlet fever and hand-foot-mouth disease.CONCLUSION From 2020 to 2022,the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Minhang District decreased significantly,mainly in children’s infectious diseases such as scarlet fever and hand-foot-mouth disease.It should focus on the prevention and control of common infectious diseases in children.
作者
成玉萍
崔劲松
王墩家
周毅彬
Cheng Yuping;Cui Jinsong;Wang Dunjia;Zhou Yibin(Minhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai,201101,China)
出处
《中国初级卫生保健》
2025年第7期38-41,共4页
Chinese Primary Health Care
基金
上海市闵行区自然科学项目(2024MHZ069)。
关键词
法定传染病
发病率
流行特征
notifiable infectious diseases
incidence rate
epidemiological characteristics
作者简介
通信作者:周毅彬,E-mail:yibin_zhou@hotmail.com。
