摘要
人工智能在给劳动力市场带来冲击的同时,也对传统货币政策的就业调控效应带来挑战。在引入劳动力市场搜寻匹配机制的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型中纳入人工智能因素,着重探究其对货币政策“稳就业”调控效应的影响机制。研究发现,人工智能通过替代效应和收入效应使就业受到双向影响;收入效应的滞后性致使短期内就业被明显挤出,还加剧了“高增长、高投资、低消费”并存态势;其资本偏向性导致宽松货币政策下企业倾向于投资扩产而非招工,叠加劳动力市场摩擦,进一步削弱货币政策稳就业功效;将就业目标纳入货币政策会面临稳就业与稳增长的权衡,虽然能缓解宽松货币政策下人工智能过度替代就业的问题,却也造成投资和产出相对下降。据此提出应合理引导人工智能发展方向,将新形态就业群体纳入公共服务覆盖范围,完善社会保障体系,实施技术冲击兜底措施,强化货币政策等政策建议。
The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI),combined with labor market matching frictions in China,has profound implications for labor market employment and wage dynamics,while also altering monetary policy mechanisms for employment stabilization through its labor substitutability and capital-biased attributes.Existing studies,however,have not explored the interplay between AI’s employment substitution effects and wage-enhancing effects within a unified theoretical framework,nor adequately examined how AI influences the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing employment.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model incorporating heterogeneous AI shocks and Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides(DMP)search-matching frictions.Through mechanistic analysis,we elucidate the micro-level channels through which AI affects employment and monetary policy regulation efficacy.Building on this foundation,we conduct numerical simulations based on China’s economic realities to analyze how general-purpose AI(GPAI)and capital-biased AI(CBAI)affect employment and monetary policy effectiveness.Our findings reveal that AI influences employment through both the substitution and income effects,but the income effect lags behind the substitution effect,resulting in short-term employment displacement and exacerbating the coexistence of“high growth,high investment,and low consumption”in the economy.The capital-biased nature of AI shifts enterprise behavior from“hiring for expansion”to“investing for expansion”under accommodative monetary policy,rendering monetary policy effective in promoting economic growth but ineffective in stabilizing employment.Additionally,intensified labor matching frictions elevate recruitment costs,further weakening enterprises’motivation to hire under accommodative monetary policy.Incorporating employment objectives into monetary policy frameworks involves a trade-off between“employment stabilization”and“growth stabilization”:while it may partially mitigate AI-driven excessive labor substitution under accommodative monetary policy,investment and output would relatively decline.Compared to existing literature,this paper’s innovations are primarily reflected in:First,it transcends the prevailing focus on AI’s substitution effects by formalizing both substitution and income effects within a unified framework,while theoretically unraveling the microeconomic mechanisms of AI’s impacts on employment and monetary policy effectiveness.Second,it examines the effectiveness of incorporating employment objectives into expanded monetary policy rules to address excessive employment substitution under AI development when AI creates short-term employment substitution and exacerbates divergence between output and employment gaps,thereby further clarifying feasible paths for strengthening monetary policy regulation.This research reveals specific mechanisms through which AI affects employment,wages,and monetary policy effectiveness.On one hand,it helps guide AI development from“labor substitution”toward“human-machine collaboration,”while reducing labor market matching frictions through multiple approaches to mitigate excessive employment substitution;on the other hand,it necessitates continuous improvement of social security systems to address short-term employment substitution,while strengthening monetary policy objective management and coordinating multiple measures.
作者
杨柳
彭海根
易宇寰
冯源
YANG Liu;PENG Haigen;YI Yuhuan;FENG Yuan(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Finance,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China;Shiyan Enterprise Listing Guidance Center,Shiyan 442000,China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
北大核心
2025年第4期20-35,共16页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“跨境气候风险与金融稳定研究”(24AJY014)。
关键词
人工智能
劳动力市场
“机器换人”
稳就业
货币政策
替代效应
收入效应
artificial intelligence
labor market
“machine substitution”
employment stabilization
monetary policy
substitution effect
income effect
作者简介
通信作者:杨柳,女,华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授,研究方向为宏观调控与金融风险防控研究、区域经济发展,电子邮箱为juticekitty@163.com;彭海根,男,华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为宏观调控政策;易宇寰,男,湖北经济学院金融学院讲师,研究方向为宏观经济、国际金融;冯源,男,十堰市企业上市指导中心科员,研究方向为宏观金融。
