摘要
在数字技术广泛应用的背景下,人工智能与经济发展深度融合,为产业结构高级化注入新动能。基于2015—2022年中国284个地级市的面板数据,采用多期DID模型,研究人工智能对产业结构高级化的影响及其作用机制。研究结论如下:①人工智能促进了产业结构高级化,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论仍然可靠;②机制分析表明,人工智能通过提升新质生产力水平、发展数字普惠金融和提高创新水平等途径促进产业结构高级化;③异质性分析发现,在东部地区、沿海地区和高行政级别城市,人工智能对产业结构高级化的影响更加显著。从人工智能赋能产业结构高级化的角度,为促进我国经济高质量发展、加速产业变革进程提供了实证依据。
In the context of the widespread application of digital technology,artificial intelli-gence(AI)is gradually and deeply integrated with economic development.The application sce-narios in various industries constantly expand,injecting new impetus into the industrial structure upgrading(ISU).In this paper,using the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2022,we adopt a multi-period double-difference model to measure the degree of ISU by using the proportion of output value of tertiary industry and secondary industry,and conduct a quasi-natural experiment by constructing a dummy variable based on the policy of"China's New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zone"to study the im-pact of AI on ISU and its functioning mechanism.Heterogeneity tests are also conducted to ana-lyze variations based on geographical location and administrative level of cities to understand the differing roles of AI across regions.The empirical study reveals several key findings:①The de-velopment of AI promotes the ISU.The conclusions remain reliable after various robustness tests such as the parallel trend test,placebo test,and exclusion of relevant policy interference.②Mechanism analysis shows that AI promotes the ISU through three mediating variables,namely,new quality productivity,digital financial inclusion,and innovation levels,indicating the intrin-sic mechanism of AI on the ISU.③Heterogeneity analysis finds that the impact of AI on the ISU is more significant in eastern,coastal,and high-administrative-level cities.The main reasons for this lie in the differences in economic foundations,the significant knowledge spillover effect and technology diffusion characteristics of AI technology,and the high quality and ability of lo-cal administrators,respectively.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward tar-geted policies and development suggestions from three aspects.First,the government should pay attention to the role of AI in the ISU,and expand the application scenarios of AI in various indus-tries by improving the AI-supporting infrastructure to promote the intelligence,sustainability,and integration of the industrial structure.Second,the government should focus on developing new urban productivity,fostering digital inclusive finance,and enhancing innovation levels,so as to give full play to the effectiveness of these three key factors in the ISU.Third,the govern-ment should leverage the benefits of AI to support the advancement of the industrial structure,tailored to regional resource endowments and local conditions.Eastern regions,coastal areas,and high-administrative-level cities should make full use of their policy,financial,infrastruc-ture,and talent advantages to develop the AI industry.Meanwhile,western regions,inland ereas and low-administrative-level cities should utilize their resource advantages to absorb some of the extended AI industries in the eastern regions,coastal areas and high-administrative-level cities.This paper provides empirical evidence for promoting high-quality economic development and industrial transformation in China from the perspective of AI-enabled ISU.
作者
赵玉帛
申嘉慧
刘焕
韩乐贤
Zhao Yubo;Shen Jiahui;Liu Huan;Han Lexian(School of Business and Administration,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Business School,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;School of Data Science and E-Commerce,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China;School of Statistics,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《创新科技》
2025年第7期26-44,共19页
Innovation science and technology
基金
河南省软科学项目“数实产业技术融合赋能河南制造业企业创新韧性的机制与提升策略研究”(252400410090)
河南省博士后科研资助项目“数字经济创新生态系统韧性监测、驱动机制与治理研究”(HN2025144)
河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划“数字化转型与企业治理”(24IRTSTHN027)
河南财经政法大学校级研究课题“数字经济赋能专精特新企业创新韧性的提升机制与实现路径研究”(23HNCDXJ19)。
关键词
人工智能
产业结构高级化
新质生产力
数字普惠金融
创新水平
artificial intelligence
industrial structure upgrading
new quality productive forces
digital inclusive finance
innovation level
作者简介
赵玉帛(1994-),男,河南禹州人,博士,讲师,研究方向:人工智能与创新管理;申嘉慧(2003-),女,河南洛阳人,本科生,研究方向:人工智能与创新管理;刘焕(2008-),女,河南南阳人,本科生,研究方向:人工智能与创新管理;韩乐贤(2005-),女,河南商丘人,本科生,研究方向:人工智能与创新管理。
