摘要
目的通过分析流行性感冒(以下简称流感)和新型冠状病毒感染(以下简称新冠)相关特定关键词的百度指数与流感样病例(ILI)监测数据的相关性,探讨百度指数在ILI监测及预测中的补充应用。方法使用同时期流感/新冠相关特定关键词的百度指数,使用Spearman相关分析2023年第1周至2024年第43周天津市ILI监测数据流感样病例百分比(ILI%)、流感/新冠病毒阳性率、流感/新冠病毒活动度与特定关键词的百度指数之间的滞后/领先时间相关性,并通过多重线性回归模型解释该时期ILI%的变化。结果监测的95周内,ILI%的平均值为4.45%,ILI%最高为11.32%。与ILI%存在强正相关关系的关键词前3位为“奥司他韦”(r=0.855)、“乙流”(r=0.810)和“速福达”(r=0.768,P均<0.05)。将流感监测指标向前移动1周后,ILI%与特定关键词的百度指数相关性增强。与只用流感和新冠病毒阳性率的模型相比,增加百度指数后的模型可以解释更多ILI%的变化。结论症状相关和治疗药物相关关键词的百度指数能较好反映并更早地预测ILI%的变化,可以成为常规流感监测有效的补充。
Objective To explore the complementary application of Baidu index in influenza-like illnesses(ILI)surveillance by analyzing the correlation between the Baidu index of specific keywords related to influenza/COVID-19 with ILI sentinel surveillance data.Methods ILI surveillance data of Tianjin were from the 1st week of 2023 to the 43rd week of 2024,using the Baidu index of influenza/COVID-19 related specific keywords in the same period,Spearman correlation was used to analyze the lag/lead time correlation between the percentage of influenza-like cases in outpatients(ILI%),influenza or COVID-19 positivity rate,and influenza/COVID-19 activity with specific keywords Baidu index.Changes in ILI%were explained by multiple linear regression modeling.Results The mean ILI%was 4.45%and the highest ILI%was 11.32%during the 95 weeks of surveillance.The top three keywords with strong positive correlation with IL1%were oseltamivir(r=0.855),flu B(r=0.810)and Xofluza(r=0.768,all P<0.05).The correlation between ILI%and keywords increased after moving the influenza surveillance indicator forward by one week.The model with the addition of the Baidu index explained more variation in ILI%than the model with influenza and COVID-19 positivity rate.Conclusions The Baidu index of symptom-related and therapeutic drug-related keywords respond better and predict changes in ILI%earlier and it can be an effective supplement to enrich routine influenza surveillance.
作者
加吾兰·祖农
苏承
杨杰
严方喆
董晓春
Jiawulan Zunong;SU Cheng;YANG Jie;YAN Fangzhe;DONG Xiaochun(Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China)
出处
《首都公共卫生》
2025年第2期75-80,共6页
Capital Journal of Public Health
基金
天津市医学重点学科(编号:TJYXZDXK-050A)
国家疾病预防控制局公共卫生人才培养支持项目。
作者简介
通信作者:董晓春,E-mail:dxc1234@126.com。
