摘要
在我国数字经济快速发展的背景下,我国跨境电商B2C模式迅速发展,以独有的优势推动着中国制造和中国品牌走向世界。本文研究得出跨境电商企业价值驱动因素包括宏观政策、企业自身组织能力、价值链体系建设和企业营销策略以及人才培养因素。目前跨境电商企业价值评估体系仍存在传统的评估方法适用性不高、收益法和实物期权法应用不完善和不成熟的问题。本文进一步结合跨境电商企业价值驱动因素对企业自由现金流量模型提出改进思路——情景分析法,从情景测定、营业收入预测和折现率计算三个方面提出参数修正思路,通过案例分析,构建一套系统的跨境电商企业价值评估体系,为跨境电商企业价值评估提供参考,促进跨境电商行业健康发展。
Against the backdrop of China's rapidly developing digital economy,the B2C cross-border e-commerce model has experienced significant growth,leveraging its unique advantages to propel both"Made in China"and"Brand China"onto the global stage.Through in-depth research,this study identifies key value characteristics of cross-border e-commerce enterprises,including macroeconomic policies,organizational capabilities,value chain development,marketing strategies,and talent cultivation.However,the existing valuation system for cross-border e-commerce enterprises still faces challenges,such as the limited applicability of traditional valuation methods and the incomplete and immature application of the income approach and real options theory.To address these issues,this study proposes an improved approach to the free cash flow to firm(FCFF)method by incorporating scenario analysis.Enhancements are introduced in three key areas:scenario probability determination,revenue forecasting,and discount rate calculation.Through case analysis,a systematic,accurate,and comprehensive valuation framework for cross-border e-commerce enterprises is established.This study provides a valuable reference for enterprise valuation in the industry,contributing to the sustainable and long-term development of cross-border e-commerce.
作者
杨焓爽
杨润高
Yang Hanshuang;Yang Rungao(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,650000)
出处
《中国资产评估》
2025年第6期71-80,F0003,共11页
Appraisal Journal of China
基金
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“数字经济背景下跨境电商企业价值评估研究——以‘子不语’公司为例”(项目编号:2024Y552)
云南财经大学研究生创新课题“互联网文化传媒企业数据资产价值评估——以人民网为例”(项目编号2024YUFEY098)。
关键词
跨境电商
B2C
企业价值评估
情景分析法
收益法
Cross-border e-commerce
B2C
Enterprise valuation
Scenario analysis
Income approach
作者简介
杨焓爽(1999-),女,汉族,云南财经大学物流与管理工程学院硕士研究生,研究方向:资产评估;杨润高(1971-),男,汉族,云南财经大学物流与管理工程学院教授,研究生导师,研究方向:人口、资源与环境经济学,资产评估。
