摘要
【目的】评估气候变化对山西杓兰(Cypripedium shanxiense)潜在分布区域的影响。【方法】通过28个环境变量和60个分布位点数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟了当前及四种未来气候情景(2050s-RCP4.5,2050s-RCP8.5,2070s-RCP4.5和2070s-RCP8.5)下山西杓兰的潜在分布格局。【结果】1)MaxEnt模型预测AUC值达到0.962,显示出极高的预测准确性;2)影响山西杓兰分布的三个关键环境变量包括:最暖季度降水量(26.6%)、最干月降水量(16.9%)和海拔(16.3%);3)在当前气候情景下,山西杓兰的适宜生境主要集中在中国华北和西北地区;4)在未来四种气候情景下,山西杓兰的总适宜生境面积呈现增长趋势,并且整体上向东北方向、高海拔地区迁移。【结论】气候变化背景下,应针对性的加强对山西杓兰收缩区(内蒙古自治区南部、青海省东部、山东省东部等)的生态保护。研究结果能够为制定山西杓兰乃至杓兰属(Cypripedium)植物的保育策略提供理论参考。
【Objective】To assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Cypripedium shanxiense.【Method】This study employed the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model,using 28 environmental variables and 60 distribution point data to model the potential distribution patterns of C.shanxiense under current and four future climate scenarios:2050 s-RCP4.5,2050 s-RCP8.5,2070 s-RCP4.5,and 2070 s-RCP8.5.[Results](1)The predictive AUC value of the MaxEnt model reached 0.962,indicating an exceptionally high level of accuracy in the predictions;(2)Themost influential environmental variables affecting the distribution of C.shanxiense were precipitation during the warmest quarter(26.6%),precipitation in the driest month(16.9%),and altitude(16.3%);(3)Under current climatic conditions,suitable habitats for C.shanxiense was mainly located in Northern and Northwestern China;(4)Under all four future climate scenarios,the total area of suitable habitat is projected to increase,with a general shift towards the northeastern direction and higher altitude areas.【Conclusion】In the context of ongoing climate change,it is recommended to strengthen ecological protection in the contraction zone of C.shanx-iense(such as southern Inner Mongolia,eastern Qinghai,and eastern Shandong,etc.).The findings of this study can provide a theoretical basis for the development ofconservation strategies for C.shanxiense and other species within the Cypripedium genus.
作者
代彩琴
张夺霖
袁宗琦
彭兵兵
张勃
张文柳
DAI Cai-qin;ZHANG Duo-lin;YUAN Zong-qi;PENG Bing-bing;ZHANG Bo;ZHANR Wen-liu(College of Grassland Science,Gansu Agricultural University,Key Laboratory for Grassland Ecosystem,Ministry of Education,Grassland Engineering Laboratory of Gansu Province,Sino-U.S.Centers for Grazing Land Ecosys-tem Sustainability,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《草原与草坪》
2025年第3期187-195,共9页
Grassland and Turf
基金
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(22JR5RA865)。
关键词
山西杓兰
气候变化
MaxEnt模型
适生区分布格局
中国
环境变量
Cypripedium shanxiense
Climate change
MaxEnt model
Habitat distribution pattern
China
Environmental variables
作者简介
代彩琴(1997-),女,贵州正安人,硕士研究生。E-mail:2876388958@qq.com;通信作者:张勃,研究方向为草地植物与微生物的共生关系。E-mail:zhangwl@gsau.edu.cn;通信作者:张文柳,研究方向为草原素草的入侵,扩散机制与草地修复。E-mail:zhangwl@gsau.edu.cn。
