摘要
针对地缘政治风险以及由其引起的预期后悔会如何影响企业的对外投资决策问题,借助多阶段动态博弈模型分别研究了不存在预期后悔下,存在东道国消费者后悔购买外国企业产品和存在东道国消费者后悔没有购买外国企业产品的三种情况下,地缘政治风险的概率信息如何作用于对外投资企业、东道国企业和消费者的策略性行为,并分析了预期后悔对左右企业对外投资决策的关键地缘政治风险阈值的影响.研究结果表明,在竞争环境下,较高的地缘政治风险发生概率信息可能有助于弱化来自东道国企业的竞争,从而有利于外国企业成功进入到该东道国市场;东道国消费者预期后悔会影响地缘政治风险发生概率的关键阈值,从而不同类型的预期后悔既可能会增加企业对外投资的可能性,也可能会降低企业对外投资的可能性.
To investigate the impact of geopolitical risks and associated expected regrets on firms'foreign direct investment(FDI)decisions,this paper utilizes a multi-stage dynamic game model.We examine three scenarios:the absence of expected regret,host consumers regretting the purchase of foreign firms'products,and host consumers regretting not purchasing such products.The study explores how probabilistic information about geopolitical risks affects the strategic behaviour of the FDI firm,host firm and consumers.It also analyses how expected regret shapes the critical geopolitical risk thresholds that determine FDI decisions.The results indicate that,in a competitive environment,a higher probability of geopolitical risk may reduce competition from host country firms,allowing foreign firms to successfully enter the host country market.In addition,the expected regrets of host country consumers infuence the critical thresholds of geopolitical risk probability.Different types of expected regrets may either increase or decrease the likelihood of firms investing abroad.
作者
叶飞
张国印
郑凯明
YE Fei;ZHANG Guo-yin;ZHENG Kai-ming(School of Management,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610103,China;School of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;School of Logistics and Management Engineering,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2025年第6期46-59,共14页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
四川省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地跨喜马拉雅研究中心重点资助项目(KX2022B04)
云南省基础研究计划项目(202301AU070081)
成都信息工程大学科研基金项目(KYTZ202240)。
作者简介
通信作者:郑凯明。
