我国碳排放影响因素及其减排路径研究——基于LMDI模型的分析被引量：2

Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions and the Pathways for Emission Reduction in China——An analysis based on the LMDI Model

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摘要明确我国碳排放影响因素对探索减排路径、实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文通过LMDI分解模型,考虑人口规模、经济发展、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构和碳排放系数等多种因素,对2000-2022年我国能源消耗产生的碳排放情况进行分析。结果表明:随着我国经济高质量发展水平的提高,由于经济增长效应所导致的碳排放呈现先增加后减少的趋势,产业结构、人口规模和能源结构效应对碳排放的促进作用在逐渐减弱,能源强度效应对碳减排的贡献仍旧突出。基于此,我国碳减排的重点应该是关注经济增长质量,提高能源利用效率、促进能源结构清洁化和低碳化,加大产业技术创新的支持力度。 Clarifying the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China is of great significance for exploring emission reduction paths and achieving the“dual carbon”goals.This paper employs the LMDI decomposition model to decompose the carbon emissions resulting from energy consumption in China during 2000-2022,taking into account multiple factors such as population size,economic development,industrial structure,energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon emission coefficients.The results show that as China’s high-quality economic development level improves,the carbon emissions caused by the economic growth effect initially increase and then decrease.The promoting effects of industrial structure,population size,and energy structure on carbon emissions are gradually weakening,while the contribution of energy intensity to carbon reduction remains prominent.In order to reduce carbon emissions,the government should focus on the quality of economic growth,improve energy utilization efficiency,promote clean and low-carbon energy structure,and increasing support for industrial technological innovation.

作者刘小丽王永利梁东王骏陈翔袁启恒 LIU Xiaoli;WANG Yongli;LIANG Dong;WANG Jun(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206;Digitalization Department of State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100054)

机构地区华北电力大学经济与管理学院国网冀北电力有限公司数字化部国家电网有限公司大数据中心能源大数据运营中心

出处《价格理论与实践》北大核心 2025年第2期229-233,244,共6页 Price:Theory & Practice

基金国家电网有限公司总部管理科学技术项目“适应绿证全覆盖的碳排放核算追踪及达峰预测关键技术研究与应用”(5700-202490228A-1-1-ZN) 教育部人文社科基金项目“‘双碳’目标下煤炭—油气—电力协同减排路径优化及保障机制研究”(22YJA630093) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“基于京津冀协同发展下的三区域能源互联网构建机制研究”(2019FR001)

关键词碳排放 LMDI分解模型能源强度碳排放系数 carbon emissions LMDI decomposition model energy intensity carbon emission coefficient

分类号 X321 [环境科学与工程—环境工程]

作者简介刘小丽(1975-),女,汉族,甘肃庆阳人,管理学博士,华北电力大学经济与管理学院副教授。研究方向:能源与经济;王永利(1980-),男,汉族,河北石家庄人,华北电力大学经济与管理学院教授。研究方向:电力市场。