摘要
文章基于2011—2022年中国26个省份煤电数据,运用耦合协调度、Dagum基尼系数分解、空间自相关和计量模型等多种方法考察了煤—电系统耦合协调度的时空特征和驱动因素。研究发现:(1)时序演变上,煤—电系统耦合协调度以初级协调为主,总体呈现阶段性波动增长趋势。(2)空间格局上,耦合协调度呈现“多核心”辐射的空间格局以及由失衡转为协调的演变格局。(3)空间差异及分解上,区域间差异是耦合协调度差异的主要来源。(4)空间关联上,耦合协调度存在正向的空间自相关性,具有高—高聚集和低—低聚集特征,且未随时间推移而发生根本性变化。(5)驱动机制分析表明,经济发展水平、产业结构和用电需求是推进煤电一体化的重要动力。研究结论为解析煤—电系统发展动态和区域差异,推进煤电一体化提供了实证借鉴。
Based on the provincial-level data of coal and thermal power from 2011 to 2022,this paper investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of coal-thermal power industries by the methods of the coupling coordination degree model,Dagum Gini coefficient,spatial autocorrelation,and econometric model.The results show that:1)The coupling coordination degree of the coal-thermal power industries exhibited a state of primary coordination,exhibiting a trend of periodic fluctuation growth.2)The coupling coordination degree of the coal-thermal power industries demonstrated a spatial pattern of"multi-core"radiation,evolving from a state of disharmony to coordination.3)Regional disparities were identified as the primary source of differences in the coupling coordination degree.4)The coupling coordination degree displayed positive spatial autocorrelation,which remained fundamentally stable over time.5)The driving mechanism analysis highlights that the economic development,industrial structure and electricity demand are significant factors that promote coal-thermal power integration.These conclusions provide empirical evidence for understanding the development trends and regional differences of coal-thermal power industries and promoting coal-thermal power integration.
作者
刘南
孔军
LIU Nan;KONG Jun(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第2期133-143,共11页
Economic Geography
基金
国家外国专家项目(G2023041027L)
西北大学研究生创新项目(CX2024030)。
关键词
煤电一体化
资源禀赋
煤炭
火电
协同发展
耦合协调度
产业结构
coal-thermal power integration
resource endowment
coal
thermal power
coordinated development
coupling coordination degree
industrial structure
作者简介
刘南(2001-),男,博士研究生,研究方向为财政税收与社会经济发展。E-mail:gssliunan@163.com;通信作者:孔军(1969-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为最优税收理论和实践、劳动力市场分割等。E-mail:kongjun@nwu.edu.cn。
