基于LASSO回归与随机森林模型的医疗服务价格影响因素研究被引量：1

Study on the influencing factors of medical service prices based on LASSO Regression and random forest model

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摘要 [目的]探寻医疗服务价格波动的主要影响因素,为政府制定和动态调整医疗服务价格提供参考。[方法]基于1998-2022年《中国统计年鉴》,采用LASSO回归筛选出医疗服务价格的主要影响因素,利用随机森林模型,对这些因素的相对重要性进行排序。[结果]LASSO回归筛选出8个关键特征变量,随机森林模型排序结果显示,居民消费价格指数(CPI)(0.194)、个人卫生支出占比(0.125)、政府卫生支出占比(0.082)、总抚养比(0.079)、人均卫生费用(0.069)、城镇职工基本医疗保险参保人数(0.062)、居民人均可支配收入(0.056)和病床使用率(0.052)等8个变量的重要性占比达72.63%。[结论]CPI在医疗服务价格波动中起主导作用,个人卫生支出占比、政府卫生支出占比、人口结构变化和医疗资源利用效率对医疗服务价格有重要影响。 Objective To explore the main influencing factors of fluctuations in medical service prices and to provide references for the government to formulate and dynamically adjust medical service prices.Methods Based on the China Statistical Yearbook from 1998 to 2022,LASSO Regression was applied to select the main influencing factors of medical service prices,and the random forest model was used to rank the relative importance of these factors.Results The LASSO Regression identified eight key variables.The ranking results of the random forest model showed that the Consumer Price Index(CPI)(0.194),the proportion of personal health expenditure(0.125),the proportion of government health expenditure(0.082),the total dependency ratio(0.079),per capita health expenditure(0.069),the number of participants in basic medical insurance for urban employees(0.062),per capita disposable income of residents(0.056),and the bed occupancy rate(0.052)accounted for 72.63%of the total importance.Conclusions CPI plays a leading role in the fluctuations of medical service prices.The proportion of personal health expenditure,the proportion of government health expenditure,changes in population structure and the utilization efficiency of medical resources have significant impacts on medical service prices.

作者刘佳佳李永强 LIU Jiajia;LI Yongqiang(Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine,Nanchang Jiangxi 330004,China)

机构地区江西中医药大学

出处《卫生软科学》 2025年第5期1-5,共5页 Soft Science of Health

基金 2022年度江西省高校人文社会科学项目(2022JJ103)。

关键词医疗服务价格 LASSO回归随机森林模型影响因素 CPI 个人卫生支出占比政府卫生支出占比总抚养比 medical service prices LASSO Regression random forest model influencing factors CPI the proportion of personal health expenditure the proportion of government health expenditure total dependency ratio

分类号 R197.1 [医药卫生—卫生事业管理]

作者简介刘佳佳(1997-),女,河北邯郸人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事卫生经济与政策方面的学习和研究;通信作者:李永强(1979-),男,重庆人,硕士,副教授,主要从事卫生经济与政策方面的研究。