摘要
能源转型已成为当前及今后全球应对气候变化风险、推动高质量发展、实现能源供给安全的关键选择。但在多重目标约束下,能源转型的不确定性和挑战仍然较大。为此,本文从能源系统结构演化出发,对能源转型的基础概念、研究方法、问题挑战进行文献综述和探究分析,得到如下结论:①碳中和背景下的能源转型已由“技术”驱动转向“问题”驱动,且不同地区和国家能源转型进程差异明显,政策调控、技术创新、市场机制与主观行为成为能源转型的关键驱动因素。②针对能源转型的量化研究主要集中于能源转型程度的评价及其趋势预测,但由于涉及能源、经济、环境、社会等多系统的耦合联动,模拟预测的“黑箱”效应较为突出。③已有研究对能源转型的经济、安全与社会效益认识存在分歧,能源转型挑战与不确定性仍然较大。未来能源转型研究需兼顾气候变化与经济发展需要,采取多样化转型手段,注重供需协同、区域协同转型,持续加强多尺度建构—关联研究。本文旨在增进对能源转型认识论和方法论的理解,为地理学者开展能源转型研究提供学术参考。
The low-carbon transformation of the energy system has emerged as a key strategy for addressing climate change risks,promoting high-quality development,and ensuring energy security.However,the clean transformation of the energy system faces significant uncertainties and challenges due to the complex constraints of multiple goals.This paper provides a comprehensive review and integrated analysis of the basic concepts,research methods,and challenges associated with energy transformation,drawing the following conclusions:(1)Shifting focus of energy transition:The energy transition in the context of carbon neutrality has evolved from being primarily technology-driven to problem-driven.The pace and success of energy transitions vary greatly across regions and nations,with policy regulation,technological innovation,market mechanisms,and behavioral factors playing pivotal roles in driving change.(2)Quantitative research on energy transition primarily centers on assessing the extent of the transition and forecasting its future trajectory.However,due to the intricate interconnections and mutual influences among multiple systems,including energy,economy,environment,and society,the predictive simulations often exhibit a pronounced"black box"effect,making interpretation and transparency more challenging.(3)Controversies and future research directions:There is ongoing debate within the international community regarding the comprehensive effects of energy transformation.The development model and pathways that balance low-carbon goals,economic growth,and energy supply security still require further theoretical and empirical exploration.While significant attention has been paid to the environmental,economic,and safety benefits of energy transformation,the social impacts have received less focus,which may undermine the long-term sustainability of the transition.Future research should integrate the dual objectives of climate change mitigation and economic development,adopt diversified transformation strategies,emphasize supply-demand coordination,and promote regionally coordinated transitions.Furthermore,strengthening multi-scale,cross-sectoral analyses will enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of energy transformations.This research aims to deepen understanding of the epistemology and methodology surrounding energy transformation,offering geographical scholars new perspectives and avenues for further investigation into this critical area of study.
作者
王强
党牛
蒋子龙
樊杰
WANG Qiang;DANG Niu;JIANG Zilong;FAN Jie(School of Geographic Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology,Fuzhou 350007,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Process Analysis&Simulation Hubei Province,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《地理学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期586-604,共19页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42471191)。
关键词
碳中和
能源转型
研究综述
研究展望
carbon neutrality
energy transition
research review
research outlook
作者简介
王强(1982-),男,河北成安人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为能源地理学与区域可持续发展。E-mail:wangq@fjnu.edu.cn;通信作者:蒋子龙(1986-),男,河南商丘人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为经济地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail:jiangzilong1986@163.com。
