摘要
文章通过构建中国企业-产品-市场的出口高维数据集,逐步探究贸易政策不确定性对多产品企业在产品和市场出口模式的影响。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性的下降推动了企业更替出口产品,促使大量企业涌入出口市场。进一步地,产品技术属性越高,贸易政策不确定性的下降对广延边际的促进作用越弱;而新旧市场在经济、文化和地理方面的距离越近,贸易政策不确定性的下降对广延边际的促进作用越强。结合广延边际拓展的特点,企业将通过新旧产品的组合探索出有效的出口路径。文章从产品和市场的双重视角分析了多产品企业应对外部政策不确定性的出口动态,总结归纳出具有中国企业特色的出口模式,对中国企业在应对外部贸易风险时的出口决策具有重要参考价值。
By constructing a high-dimensional export dataset at China's enterprises-product-market level,this paper explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty on export modes of multi-product enterprises in terms of product and market.The research shows that the decline in trade policy uncertainty drives the enterprises to update their export products,resulting in a large influx of the enterprises into export market.Furthermore,the higher the technical attribute of the product,the weaker the promotion effect of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the extensive margin.The closer the distance between the old and new markets in terms of economy,culture and geography,the stronger the promotion effect of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the extensive margin.Based on the characteristics of the expansion of the extensive margin,the enterprises will explore effective export paths through the combination of new and old products.This paper analyzes export dynamics of multi-product enterprises in response to external policy uncertainty from the dual perspectives of product and market,and summarizes and generalizes export modes with the characteristics of China's enterprises,providing important reference value for China's enterprises in making export decisions when dealing with external trade risks.
作者
陈欣
林桂军
CHEN Xin;LIN Guijun
出处
《国际经贸探索》
北大核心
2025年第3期22-39,共18页
International Economics and Trade Research
关键词
贸易政策不确定性
多产品企业
出口动态
广延边际
出口模式
trade policy uncertainty
multi-product enterprises
export dynamics
extensive margin
export modes
作者简介
陈欣(1993-),女,广东韶关人,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院博士研究生,研究方向为国际贸易理论与政策、贸易风险;通信作者:林桂军(1959-),北京人,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授,研究方向为国际贸易理论与政策、全球价值链,电子邮箱:00044@uibe.edu.cn。
