摘要
本文利用2000—2013年中国多产品出口企业数据,研究了出口目的国市场规模和供给潜力变化对企业出口产品结构的影响。结果发现:市场规模扩张引致的竞争加剧,会弱化"选择效应"但强化"倾斜效应";而厂商供给潜力提升引致的竞争加剧,会强化"选择效应"和"倾斜效应"。以校正的夜间灯光数据为市场规模的工具变量处理模型的内生性问题后,模型估计仍保持稳健。进一步,结合市场多元化策略研究表明,企业出口目的国的增加能够在一定程度上缓解竞争加剧造成的出口产品集中化,但出口市场数量存在最优值。因此,为了更好地抵御外部冲击,保持外贸经济稳定增长,一方面,出口企业应不断培育核心优势产品,提高自身优势;另一方面,适度开发新市场,有效分散经营风险。
Based on the data of Chinese export firms from 2000 to 2013,this paper studies the influence of the market size and the changes in the supply capacity of export destination countries on the structure of export products.The results show that the intensified competition caused by the expansion of market scale will weaken the"choose-effect"but strengthen the"skewness-effect".In contrast,the intensified competition caused by the enhancement of the supply capacity of the manufacturers in the destination countries will strengthen both the"choose-effect"and the"skewness-effect."When we use the adjusted data of night light as an instrument for economic activity,the results remain robust.Our research combined with strategy of market diversification further shows that an increase in the number of exporting countries can help to alleviate the concentration of export products caused by intensified competition,but there is an optimal size of export markets.Therefore,in order to withstand the external shocks,and stabilize the growth of trade,on the one hand,exporting firms should constantly cultivate core products that they have competency in;on the other hand,they should reasonably expand new markets and effectively spread business risks.
作者
季鹏
袁莉琳
李荣林
JI Peng;YUAN Lilin;LI Ronglin
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第10期73-89,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’与南南合作背景下的中非产能合作问题研究”(19ZDA063)
北京建筑大学青年教师科研能力提升计划“城市产业空间布局对城市经济韧性的影响研究”(X21011)
关键词
市场规模
供给潜力
竞争
出口产品结构
Market Size
Supply Capacity
Competition
Export Product Mix
作者简介
季鹏,北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院讲师;通讯作者:袁莉琳,北京工业大学经济与管理学院讲师,100124,电子邮箱yuanll@mail.nankai.edu.cn;李荣林,南开大学经济学院教授
