旅游业高质量发展的多尺度空间解构与模拟评估

Multi-scale Spatial Deconstruction and Simulation Evaluation of High-quality Development of China's Tourism Industry

导出

摘要文章参照新发展理念构建中国旅游业高质量发展指标体系,基于2011—2022年30个省份的面板数据,使用系统动力学模型分析了中国旅游业高质量发展的时空演化特征,并设置“生态建设优先型、产业协调配置型、质量规模驱动型和成效共享导向型”4种模拟情境,从国家级—区域级—省级尺度开展模拟评估研究。研究发现:①中国旅游业高质量发展水平整体稳中有进,各省份相对发展状况呈现出产业重心梯度转移、比较优势随时间轮替的特征。②中国旅游业发展具有较强的政策导向性,政策红利的落地有助于解决区域间发展不平衡的问题。③对比4种模拟情境,发现其均能在部分省份展现出比较优势。其中成效共享导向型情境更适用于发展水平较高的东部省份和西部大部分省份;产业协调配置型情境适用范围最广,但边际优势逐渐减弱;生态建设优先型情境在模拟仿真初期适用性较差,但相对优势持续增强,在模拟仿真末期产生了较好成效。 This article constructs an indicator system for the high-quality development of China's tourism industry based on the new development philosophy.Based on the panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2022,it uses a system dynamics model to analyze the evolution characteristics of high-quality development of China's tourism industry,and sets up four types of simulation scenarios:ecological construction priority type,industry coordination configuration type,quality and scale-driven type,and result-sharing oriented type.It carries out the simulation evaluation research at the national,regional,and provincial levels.It's found that:1)The overall high-quality development level of China's tourism industry is stable and improving,and the relative development status of various provincial-level regions shows a gradient shift in industrial focus and a rotation of comparative advantages over time.2)The development of China's tourism industry has strong policy orientation,and the implementation of policy dividends can help solve the problem of regional development imbalance.3)Comparing four simulation scenarios,it demonstrates comparative advantages in some provincial-level regions.The result-sharing oriented scenario is more suitable for the eastern and most western provincial-level regions with higher development levels.The scenario of industry coordination configuration has the widest applicability,but the marginal advantage shows a decreasing state.The ecological construction priority scenario has poor applicability in the early stage of simulation,but its relative advantages continue to strengthen,resulting in good results in the late stage of simulation.

作者徐晓亮王明辰关靖云孙之阳崔明月 XU Xiaoliang;WANG Mingchen;GUAN Jingyun;SUN Zhiyang;CUI Mingyue(College of Tourism,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang,China;Xinjiang Tourism Public Opinion Analysis Center,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区新疆财经大学旅游学院新疆旅游舆情分析中心

出处《经济地理》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第12期196-205,共10页 Economic Geography

基金国家社会科学基金项目(23XMZ061) 新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(22VZX019)。

关键词旅游业高质量发展评估体系政策导向系统动力学模型多尺度 high-quality development of tourism industry evaluation system policy orientation system dynamics model multi-scale

分类号 F592 [经济管理—旅游管理]

作者简介徐晓亮(1980-),男,博士,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为文化与区域旅游。E-mail:xuxiaoliang@xjufe.edu.cn;通信作者:关靖云(1991-),男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为旅游地理。E-mail:guanjingyun@xjufe.edu.cn。