摘要
胡麻是我国重要的特色油料作物,主要分布在我国北方和西北地区,其中甘肃省的胡麻产业近年来一直位于全国首位,截至2022年甘肃省胡麻籽总产量占比达到51.02%。了解我国及甘肃省的胡麻产业发展现状,可为甘肃省农户种植规模调整、企业经营决策和政府宏观调控提供相关依据。在剖析甘肃省胡麻产业发展现状和存在问题的基础上,选取2003-2022年胡麻籽产量及相关影响因素数据,从经济和技术因素、农业生产资料成本和胡麻种植3个方面对甘肃省胡麻产量影响因素进行灰色关联分析。选取关联度较高的乡村人口、播种面积、农业生产资料价格指数、商品零售价格指数、胡麻单产等影响因素,分别构建GM(1,1)预测模型、TGM预测模型和GM(1,N)预测模型,对甘肃省胡麻籽产量变化趋势进行拟合和预测。结果表明:TGM模型的表现优于其他模型,其预测误差在5%以内,预测效果较好。根据预测结果,2023-2025年,甘肃省胡麻籽产量将保持缓慢下降趋势,并在2025年减少至约11.56万t。
Flax is an important characteristic oil crop in China,mainly distributed in the north and northwest regions of China.In recent years,the flax industry in Gansu province has been ranked first in the country,and the total output of flax seed in Gansu province has reached 51.02%by 2022.Understanding the development status of flax industry in China and Gansu can provide relevant basis for the adjustment of farmers’planting scale,the change of enterprises’management decision and the government’s macro-control in Gansu Province.Based on the analysis of the development status and existing problems of the flax industry in Gansu province,the data of flax seed production and related influencing factors from 2003 to 2022 were selected to analyze the influencing factors of flax production in Gansu province from three aspects,which were economic and technical factors,cost of agricultural production materials and flax sowing.Five influential factors,including rural population,sowing area,price index of agricultural means of production,retail price index of commodity and flax yield per unit area,were selected with the highest correlation,and the GM(1,1)forecasting model,TGM forecasting model and GM(1,N)forecasting model were constructed respectively to fit and forecast the change trend of flax seed yield in Gansu Province.The results show that the TGM model performs better than the other two models,and the prediction error is controlled within 5%,which indicates that the model has a good prediction effect.It is predicted that the flax seed production in Gansu Province will maintain a slow decline from 2023 to 2025,and will decrease to 115600 tons in 2025.
作者
郝永昶
李玥
HAO Yongchang;LI Yue(School of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000,China)
出处
《作物研究》
2024年第6期469-475,共7页
Crop Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(32060437)
甘肃省科技计划-自然科学基金重点项目(23JRRA1403)。
关键词
胡麻
产量预测
灰色理论
影响因素
甘肃省
flax
yield forecast
grey theory
influencing factors
Gansu Province
作者简介
郝永昶(2000-),男,硕士研究生,Email:2502671162@qq.com;通信作者:李玥,女,博士,教授,硕士研究生导师,主要从事智慧农业、人工智能、大数据分析挖掘等研究,Email:liyue@gsau.edu.cn。
