摘要
针对不同天气条件下分布式光伏发电功率的预测方法进行了研究,提出了一种基于出力特性及长短期记忆网络的分布式光伏场站功率预测方法。首先,对光储发电系统中光伏发电的基本原理、并网结构及其功率特性进行了介绍,并在此基础上分析了分布式光伏阵列的出力特性;然后,利用LSTM在时序上的状态表征和特征提取优势,对光功率时间点前后的特征值进行特征提取;最后,基于分布式光伏阵列的出力特性和LSTM构建了一种新的光伏发电功率预测模型,能够实现不同天气下对光伏发电功率的准确预测。以保定市某光伏发电系统的实际参数为基础,通过仿真实验验证了所提模型的有效性,结果表明,提出的分布式光伏场站功率预测方法能够在各种天气下实现对分布式光伏场站功率的准确预测,且在晴天时预测的均方根误差和平均绝对误差最低,分别为4.35%和5.74%。
A study is conducted on the power prediction method of distributed photovoltaic(PV)power generation under different weather conditions,and a power prediction method for distributed PV stations based on output characteristics and long and short term memory(LSTM)network is proposed.Firstly,the basic principle,grid-connection structure and power characteristics of PV power generation in optical storage power generation system are introduced.On this basis,the output characteristics of distributed PV arrays are analyzed.Then,LSTM's advantages of state characterization and feature extraction in time series are utilized,and feature extraction is carried out for the feature values before and after the optical power time point.Finally,based on the output characteristics of distributed PV array and LSTM,a new power prediction model of PV power generation is constructed,which can realize the accurate power prediction of PV power generation under different weather conditions.Based on the actual parameters of a PV power generation system in Baoding City,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by simulation experiments.The results show that the proposed power prediction method of distributed PV stations can accurately predict the power of distributed PV stations under various weather conditions,and the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error are the lowest on sunny days,which are 4.35%and 5.74%respectively.
作者
董默
DONG Mo(Baoding Power Supply Branch of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Baoding,Hebei 071000,China)
出处
《山西电力》
2024年第6期19-24,共6页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
分布式光伏
功率预测
LSTM
出力特性
光伏并网结构
distributed PV
power prediction
LSTM
output characteristics
PV grid-connection structure
作者简介
董默(1990),男,河北保定人,2019年毕业于华北电力大学电子与通信工程专业,硕士,工程师,从事继电保护、新能源工作。
