摘要
撤离时间估算是核事故应急决策的重要依据,但往往受到核事故下复杂情况的影响,导致同一条撤离路径的撤离时间发生巨大变化。本文提出撤离时间可靠性来衡量各路径的撤离能力。首先运用复杂网络构建撤离交通网络模型并计算不同风向区间内路段累积剂量,然后采用辐射量-Dijkstra算法得到集合点到安置点的最优撤离路径;结合改进的路阻函数,探究撤离路径在不同天气、撤离方式下的撤离时间可靠性。结果表明:大雨和风雾条件下核电厂撤离时间可靠性分别下降5.3%和9.2%;组织撤离占比50%~60%时,撤离时间可靠性最高。
Evacuation time estimation is an important basis for nuclear accident emergency decision-making,but it is often affected by the complex situation under nuclear accidents,resulting in a huge variation in the evacuation time of the same evacuation path.This paper proposes the reliability of evacuation time to measure the evacuation ability of each path.Firstly,the complex network is used to construct the evacuation traffic network model and calculate the cumulative dose of the road section in different wind direction intervals.Then,the optimal evacuation path from the assembly point to the resettlement point is obtained by using the radiation-Dijkstra algorithm.Combined with the improved road resistance function,the reliability of evacuation time under different weather and evacuation modes is explored.The results show that the reliability of evacuation time of nuclear power plant decreases by 5.3%and 9.2%respectively under heavy rain and wind fog conditions.When the evacuation ratio of the organization is 50%~60%,the reliability of the evacuation time is the highest.
作者
戴剑勇
李佩东
张美荣
甘美艳
张雨婷
高文卉
DAI Jianyong;LI Peidong;ZHANG Meirong;GAN Meiyan;ZHANG Yuting;GAO Wenhui(College of Resources,Environment and Safety Engineering,University of South China,Hengyang of Hunan Prov.421001,China;Nuclear Facilities Emergency Safety Operation Technology and Equipment Key Laboratory of Hunan Province,Hengyang of Hunan Prov.421001,China)
出处
《核科学与工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1163-1171,共9页
Nuclear Science and Engineering
基金
湖南省重点科研创新项目(No.CX20230947)。
作者简介
戴剑勇(1969-),男,湖南新化人,教授,博士,研究方向为安全系统工程与风险应急管理。
