摘要
作为贸易新业态的数字贸易,是推动全球价值链变革的关键动能。本文基于1999—2018年的跨国面板数据,构建数字贸易、数字产业价值链的嵌入度、地位指数和产业结构升级等指标,运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型与门槛效应模型,从理论机制出发,创新性地从数字产业价值链嵌入的角度探讨了发展中国家发展数字贸易对其产业结构升级的影响,主要发现如下:数字贸易可以显著促进发展中国家的产业结构升级,并对产业结构高级化、转型速度和合理化均有促进作用。机制检验发现,数字贸易融入数字产业价值链分工体系过程中,会通过减少后向嵌入度和增强前向嵌入度,对发展中国家的产业结构升级产生积极作用。在跨越价值链跃升效应与用户规模效应的门槛值后,数字贸易对产业结构升级的作用将呈现边际递增效应。发展中国家加快数字贸易发展,参与数字产业全球价值链分工,是实现产业结构升级的新方向。本研究可为发展中国家在加强数字基础建设、提高数字产业自主创新能力等方面提供合理的经验支撑与参考依据。
As a new form of trade,digital trade has become a key driving force behind the transformation of global value chains.By leveraging the robust externalities of digital technology,emerging countries and developing countries are no longer constrained by disparities in core technologies.Instead,they have seized the opportunity to leapfrog their growth by engaging in the fragmentation transfer of industries.Therefore,it is important and meaningful to study how digital trade can upgrade the industrial structure of developing countries.Based on this,this paper will explore the impact mechanism of digital trade on industrial structure upgrading in developing countries through theoretical construction and empirical research.This exploration is helpful for understanding the development direction of digital trade in developing countries,identifying effective pathways for industrial structure upgrading,and reconstructing the competitive advantage of trade.It also provides a basis for building a more fair,reasonable,open,and inclusive governance system and development environment for the digital industrial value chain.Based on cross-country panel data from 1999 to 2018,this paper constructs indicators for digital trade,the embeddedness of digital industrial value chains,status index,and industrial structure upgrading.It employs panel bidirectional fixed effect models,mediation effect models,and threshold effect models for empirical tests.Drawing on theoretical mechanisms,this paper innovatively explores the impact of developing digital trade on the upgrading of industrial structure in developing countries from the perspective of the embeddedness of digital industry value chain.The main findings of our research are summarized as follows:(1) Digital trade is an important factor in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure in developing countries,and it plays a facilitating role in the advancement of the industrial structure,the speed of transformation,and the rationalization of the industrial structure.Further,the positive effect of digital trade on the upgrading of industrial structure is greater in countries with higher trade freedom,investment freedom and government integrity.In addition,developing countries participating in the construction of the Belt and Road can effectively contribute to the upgrading of industrial structure through digital trade.(2) The mechanism test found that the integration of digital trade into the digital industrial value chains will have a positive effect on the industrial structure upgrading of developing countries by reducing the degree of backward embeddedness and increasing the degree of forward embeddedness.(3) After crossing the threshold value of value chain leapfrog effect and user scale effect,the role of digital trade on industrial structure upgrading will show marginal incremental effect.Developing countries accelerate the development of digital trade and participate in the division of labor in the value chain of digital industry,which is a new direction to realize industrial structure upgrading.Through the above research,this paper provides an effective scientific decision-making basis for developing countries to accelerate the development of digital trade,participate in the division of labor in the digital industry value chain,and get rid of the “low-end locking trap”.The potential additional contributions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,based on the measured data of digital trade,it explores the influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading at the macro level,which provides valuable ideas for developing countries to promote high-quality economic development and enhance industrial competitiveness.Secondly,considering the economic development context of developing countries,the paper explores the transmission channels through which digital trade impacts industrial structure upgrading under various embedding methods.This offers innovative perspectives for these countries to achieve sustainable development in the digital economy era.Thirdly,the non-linear impact of digital trade on the upgrading of industrial structure is explored from both supply-side and demand-side perspectives based on the networked characteristics of digital trade,which provides a reasonable reference basis for policies such as strengthening the digital infrastructure of developing countries.
作者
侯慧芳
张少军
谌瑞华
HOU Hui-fang;ZHANG Shao-jun;CHEN Rui-hua(International Business School,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou,Fujian,363105,China;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,361005,China;China Post Group Xiamen Branch,Xiamen,Fujian,361101,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第10期5-24,共20页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
福建省社会科学规划基金青年项目“价值链视角下数字新基建对福建省产业转型升级的路径研究”(FJ2023C042)
福建省社会科学规划基金重点项目“福建省数字经济与实体经济深度融合发展实证研究”(FJ2024A001)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“重大突发事件对中国产业供应链的影响机制及对策研究”(24YJA790089)。
关键词
数字贸易
产业结构升级
数字产业价值链
digital trade
industrial structure upgrading
digital industry value chain
作者简介
侯慧芳,女,讲师,硕士生导师,经济学博士,研究领域是全球价值链、数字贸易,电子邮箱:hhf90@foxmail.com;通讯作者:张少军,男,教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,研究领域是全球价值链、经济双循环,电子邮箱:54foxzhang@163.com;谌瑞华,女,研究助理,研究领域为数字贸易、跨境供应链,电子邮箱:crh200202@foxmail.com。
