摘要
西藏大骨节病现已进入防控的巩固提升阶段,厘清其病情消退的时空机理,对促进高原地方病长效防控具有重要意义。本文基于2000—2015年西藏大骨节病检出率数据,综合运用随机森林和空间统计方法,分析了西藏大骨节病病情的时空变化特征,探索了影响大骨节病病情消退的主要因素及其区域差异。结果表明:①2000—2015年西藏各病区大骨节病病情稳定下降,空间上病情由总体东高西低、南高北低的分布态势逐渐向东部地区集聚,昌都病区病情最重且持续时间最长;②重要性位列前4的影响大骨节病病情消退的因子分别为农牧民人均食品消费、人均GDP、农牧民人均可支配收入和NDVI,除NDVI外,其他因子均与大骨节病检出率呈负相关关系;③阿里病区大骨节病病情变化主要受人均GDP和农牧民收入水平影响,雅江中游病区和昌都病区则受膳食因素影响更大;④不同年份大骨节病流行的主导因素差异较大,具体表现为由自然因素为主导向人文社会因素主导转变,社会经济、膳食营养和土地利用方式对西藏大骨节病病情防控具有重要作用。鉴于西藏独特的环境条件,加强多元化食物供给、坚持退耕还林还草仍是防控大骨节病的基本对策,而提高病区经济发展水平、改善居民膳食营养是高原大骨节病长效防控的根本保障。
Kashin-Beck disease(KBD)control in Xizang has now entered a new stage of consolidation and improvement.Clarifying the spatiotemporal mechanism of its regression is of great significance for promoting the long-term prevention and control of endemic diseases in the plateau.Based on the detection rate data of KBD in Xizang from 2000 to 2015 and by the methods of random forest and spatial statistics,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of KBD and explored the main factors affecting the regression of KBD and their regional differences.The results showed that:(1)The condition of KBD decreased steadily in all parts of Xizang during 2000-2015.The spatial distribution of KBD gradually converged to the east from the overall pattern of high in the east and low in the west,high in the south and low in the north.The disease was the most serious and had the longest duration in Qamdo wards.(2)The top four major factors affecting the regression of KBD were per capita food consumption of farmers and herdsmen,per capita GDP,per capita disposable income of farmers and herdsmen,and NDVI.Except for NDVI,all the other factors showed negative correlations with the detection rate of KBD.(3)In Ali,the prevalence of KBD was mainly influenced by per capita GDP and the income level of farmers and herdsmen,while in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and Qamdo,wards were more affected by dietary factors.(4)The dominant factors for the prevalence of KBD varied greatly within different years,which specifically manifested as a shift from natural factors to humanistic and social factors.Social economy,dietary nutrition and land use patterns played important roles in the prevention and control of KBD in Xizang.In view of the unique environmental conditions in Xizang,strengthening diversified food supply and adhering to returning farmland to forests and grasslands are still the basic countermeasures for preventing and controlling KBD.Meanwhile,raising the economic development level of endemic areas and enhancing the dietary nutrition of local residents are the fundamental guarantees for the long-term prevention and control of KBD in the plateau.
作者
王婧
李若楠
韦炳干
李海蓉
郭敏
WANG Jing;LI Ruonan;WEI Binggan;LI Hairong;GUO Min(Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis&Simulation,Research Institute of Sustainable Development,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Xizang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lhasa 850030,China)
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第11期2849-2863,共15页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
西藏自治区重点研发计划(XZ202201ZY0029G)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0607)。
关键词
大骨节病
时空变化
影响机理
随机森林
西藏
Kashin-Beck disease(KBD)
spatiotemporal variation
influence mechanism
random forest
Xizang
作者简介
王婧(1989-),女,宁夏银川人,讲师,硕导,主要从事健康地理学研究。E-mail:jingwang@ccnu.edu.cn。
