摘要
目的对2024年9月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。方法运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。结果2024年9月监测到18种传染病在全球47个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件42个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件12个,中风险事件54个。结论境外输入风险方面,建议一般关注美洲、亚洲的登革热,北美洲的东部马脑炎、猴痘、西尼罗病毒病、奥罗普切热,亚洲的猴痘、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、脊髓灰质炎,非洲的霍乱、马尔堡出血热,欧洲的白喉、西尼罗病毒病可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点持续关注洪都拉斯、巴西、泰国、越南、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国的登革热。9月额外重点关注美国的奥罗普切热,巴拿马、中非共和国、印度、印度尼西亚的登革热,以及印度的基孔肯雅热。除此之外,还需一般关注欧洲的登革热、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、西尼罗病毒病,美洲的猴痘,北美洲的基孔肯雅热、西尼罗病毒病,非洲的猴痘、霍乱、脊髓灰质炎、马尔堡出血热、鼠疫,亚洲的登革热、猴痘、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、脊髓灰质炎、西尼罗病毒病、寨卡病毒病可能带来的感染风险。
Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in September 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet,this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-,country-and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.Results In September 2024,18infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 47 countries worldwide.In terms of importation risk to China,there are 42 medium-risk events;in terms of international travel risk,there are 12 high-risk events and 54 medium-risk events.Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to dengue fever in the Americas and Asia,eastern equine encephalitis,mpox,West Nile virus disease,and Oropouche fever in North America,mpox,cholera,chikungunya fever,and poliomyelitis in Asia,cholera and Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Africa,and diphtheria and West Nile virus disease in Europe.In terms of the risk of overseas travel,it is recommended that travelers continuously focus on the dengue fever in Honduras,Brazil,Thailand,Vietnam,Sri Lanka,and Bangladesh.In September,travelers should pay extra attention to Oropouche fever in the United States,dengue fever in Panama,the Central African Republic,India,and Indonesia,and chikungunya fever in India.In addition,it is also necessary to pay moderate attention to the infection risks that may be brought by dengue fever,cholera,chikungunya fever,West Nile virus disease in Europe,mpox in the Americas,chikungunya fever and West Nile virus disease in North America,mpox,cholera,poliomyelitis,Marburg hemorrhagic fever,and plague in Africa,and dengue fever,mpox,cholera,chikungunya fever,poliomyelitis,West Nile virus disease,and Zika virus disease in Asia.
作者
武洁雯
庞明樊
纪瀚然
房元圣
杨昕娉
赵青
孙静
滕岱君
孙雅婷
戚晓鹏
Wu Jiewen;Pang Mingfan;Ji Hanran;Fang Yuansheng;Yang Xinping;Zhao Qing;Sun Jing;Teng Daijun;Sun Yating;Qi Xiaopeng(Center for Global Public Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第10期1251-1256,共6页
Disease Surveillance
基金
全球卫生与控烟-全球卫生能力建设(No.242301)。
关键词
全球传染病
事件监测
风险评估
开源情报
Global infectious diseases
Event-based surveillance
Risk assessment
Open-source intelligence
作者简介
武洁雯,女,山东省青岛市人,硕士,助理研究员,主要从事全球卫生工作,Email:wujw@chinacdc.cn;通讯作者:戚晓鹏,Tel:010−58900327,Email:qixp@chinacdc.cn。
