摘要
考虑重大基础设施工程协同创新内外部的不确定性因素,引入高斯白噪声,构建由承包方和学研方构成的双方随机演化博弈模型,分析随机干扰下双方主体的演化过程及策略稳定性,并通过数值仿真对相关参数进行敏感性分析。研究表明:随机干扰因素的影响使得双方的演化速度变慢,演化过程出现波动性,干扰强度越大,波动幅度越大;过高或者过低的成本分摊系数和协同收益分配比例都不利于双方积极参与协同创新;协同创新溢出系数的增大使得双方的演化速度变慢,学研方比承包方更为敏感;声誉效应越大,越有利于双方积极选择协同创新策略。
Considering the uncertainties of internal and external factors in collaborative innovation in mega-projects,introducing Gaussian white noise,constructing a stochastic evolutionary game model composed of contractors and academic researchers,analyzing the evolutionary processes and strategy stability of both parties under random interference,and conducting sensitivity analysis on relevant parameters through numerical simulations.The research indicates that the impact of random interference factors slows down the evolution speed of both parties,introducing fluctuations in the evolutionary process,with larger interference intensity leading to greater fluctuations.Both excessively high and low cost allocation coefficients and collaborative profit distribution ratios are not conducive to active participation in collaborative innovation by both parties.An increase in the collaborative innovation spillover coefficient slows down the evolution speed of both parties,with research and educational institutions being more sensitive than contractors.A larger reputation effect is more beneficial for both parties to actively choose collaborative innovation strategies.
作者
王春梅
章胜平
宋志刚
Wang Chunmei;Zhang Shengping;Song Zhigang
出处
《工程经济》
2024年第8期4-15,共12页
ENGINEERING ECONOMY
基金
云南省重点领域科技计划项目“建筑安全风险防控关键技术与应用研究”(202003AC100001)。
关键词
重大工程
协同创新
随机干扰
随机演化博弈
Megaprojects
Collaboration Innovation
Stochastic Disturbance
Stochastic Evolutionary Game
作者简介
王春梅,昆明理工大学建筑工程学院硕士研究生,研究方向:重大工程项目管理;通讯作者:章胜平,昆明理工大学建筑工程学院讲师,硕士,研究方向:重大工程项目管理;宋志刚,昆明理工大学建筑工程学院教授,博士,研究方向:工程安全。
