摘要
为探讨汽车制造商面对国内汽车行业电气化转型的生产决策问题,在双积分政策背景下针对制造商、零售商组成的二级供应链构建两种生产情形下不同决策模型,并引入新能源汽车电能消耗和消费者新能源偏好,运用Stackelberg博弈求得不同生产情形中不同决策模式下供应链各成员最优生产决策与收益分析。结果表明:双积分政策的深入实施有利于提高新能源汽车电能消耗水平,降低新能源汽车销售价格,扩大市场规模的同时促使燃油车提高减排水平;车企应选择在集中决策模式下提高新能源车型产能,逐渐减少传统燃油车产量,给供应链中各成员带来更多收益;从短期看制造商继续生产燃油车的生产情形所获收益虽高于停产燃油车情形,但其收益波动较大且制造商停产燃油车全面转型生产新能源汽车后的收益呈稳定增长趋势。
To explore the production decision-making problem of the electrification transformation in the domestic automobile industry faced by automobile manufacturers,different decision-making models under two production scenarios are constructed for the secondary supply chain composed of manufacturers and retailers under the background of a dual-credit policy.The electric energy consumption of new energy vehicles and consumers'preference for new energy are introduced.The Stackelberg game is applied to obtain the optimal production decision and income analysis of each member in the supply chain under different decision modes in diferent production scenarios.The results show that the in-depth implementation of the dual-credit policy is conducive to improving the power consumption level of new energy vehicles,reducing the sales price of new energy vehicles,expanding the market size,and promoting the fuel vehicles to improve the emission reduction level.Automobile enterprises should choose to improve the production capacity of new energy models under the centralized decision-making mode and gradually reduce the output of traditional fuel vehicles to bring more benefits to each member of the supply chain.In the short term,although the profit obtained by the manufacturer in the case of continuing production of fuel vehicles is higher than that in the case of stopping production of fuel vehicles,its profit fluctuates greatly while the profit shows a stable growth trend after the manufacturer stops production of fuel vehicles and fully transforms into production of new energy vehicles.
作者
李芳
董天浩
Li Fang;Dong Tianhao(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《系统仿真学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期1596-1608,共13页
Journal of System Simulation
基金
国家自然科学基金(72271164)
上海市软科学研究重点项目(19692104000)。
关键词
双积分政策
电能消耗
消费者新能源偏好
最优决策
生产决策
dual-credit policy
electric power consumption
consumer preference for new energy
optimal decision
production decision
作者简介
第一作者:李芳(1966-),女,副教授,博士,研究方向为闭环供应链、绿色供应链。E-mailifang2502@126.com;通讯作者:董天浩(1998-),男,硕士生,研究方向为供应链管理。E-mail:dth989898@163.com。
