摘要
为探究不同类突发事件对粮食网络抗毁性能的影响,以2019年新冠疫情、2021年郑州暴雨和2022年新冠变异毒株袭击上海3个突发事件为研究背景,采用格兰杰因果检测法构建粮食股票关联网络;通过对不同时期网络拓扑特征、节点重要性和抗毁性能的分析发现在面对整体或者局部突发事件的侵袭过程中,粮食关联网络内部结构会随着冲击程度产生一定的有效调节,占据主导作用的节点根据地理位置因素形成快捷有效的应援模式,对这些粮食供应重要节点的维系和保护往往是重点。攻击仿真结果显示,蓄意攻击迫害性比随机攻击更强,第2阶段的粮食关联网络遭受瓦解速度最为迅速,第3、4阶段抗毁性能不稳定程度更大。最后,在粮食股市运用的CUSUM控制图预警效果也较好。
In order to study the impact of different types of emergencies including COVID-19,July 20 Heavy rainstorm in Zhengzhou and variant strains of the new coronavirus attacked Shanghai in 2022 on the performance of food network security,the Grainger causal detection method was used to construct four different stages of food stock correlation network.Through the analysis of the network topology characteristics,node importance and anti-destruction performance in the three periods,it is found that in the process of facing the invasion of overall or local emergencies,the internal structure of the food-related network will be effectively adjusted with the degree of impact,and the nodes that occupy the leading role form a fast and effective response mode according to geographical factors,and the maintenance and protection of these important nodes of food supply is often the focus.The attack simulation results show that deliberate attacks are more persecutive than random attacks,and the food related networks in the second stage are disintegrated most rapidly,and the anti-destruction performance of the third and fourth stages is more unstable.Finally,the early warning effect of CUSUM control chart used in the grain stock market is also well reflected.
作者
刘建刚
陈芦霞
LIU Jiangang;CHEN Luxia(School of Science,Changsha 410205,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computation Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China)
出处
《复杂系统与复杂性科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期52-59,67,共9页
Complex Systems and Complexity Science
基金
湖南省教育厅科研基金项目(22B0612)。
关键词
粮食关联网络
突发事件
抗毁性
CUSUM算法
grain correlation network
major emergencies
invulnerability
CUSUM algorithm
作者简介
第一作者:刘建刚(1984-),山东泰安人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为多智能体系统分布式协同控制理论及其应用;通信作者:陈芦霞(1998-),江西贵溪人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂网络在金融、经济领域的研究与应用。
