摘要
以安徽省耕地资源利用变化为研究对象,在分析1989~2018年近30年安徽省耕地资源数量、质量和粮食产量变化的基础上,从统计学的角度探寻耕地资源利用变化对粮食安全的内在影响机理。利用spass25.0软件,通过最小二乘法拟合构建线性回归模型,将耕地资源质量指标与粮食产量进行定量分析。结果表明:1989~2018年间,安徽省耕地资源总量和人均耕地面积时空变化差异显著,粮食总产量逐年增多,但是人均粮食占有量呈现增减交替波动变化。提出强化粮食安全意识,科学编制国土空间规划,加强粮食安全动态监测,提高粮食综合生产能力等提高安徽省粮食安全程度对策建议。
Based on the analysis of the changes in the quantity,quality and grain yield of cultivated land in Anhui Province during the past 30 years from 1989 to 2018,to explore the internal influence mechanism of cultivated land use change on food security from the angle of statistics.Using spass25.0 software,a linear regression model was constructed by least squares fitting,and the cultivated land quality index and grain yield were Quantitative analysis.The results showed that from 1989 to 2018,the total amount of cultivated land resources and per capita cultivated land area in Anhui province had significant temporal and spatial variations.In order to improve the regional food security,we should strengthen the consciousness of food security,optimize the territorial space planning and constantly improve the system of permanent basic farmland demarcation,and steadily improve the comprehensive food production capacity.
作者
张平平
高蕾
鲁成树
胡心意
ZHANG Ping-ping;GAO Lei;LU Cheng-shu;HU Xin-yi(E-commerce College,Anhui Business College,Wuhu 241000,Anhui Province,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000,Anhui Province,China;Institute of Quality,safety and nutrition of agricultural products,Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Hangzhou 310021,Zhejiang Province,China)
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第4期436-441,共6页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
2020年安徽省人文社会科学研究重点项目“安徽省城镇化与资源环境压力脱钩关系的变动过程、格局与机理”(SK2020A0827)
2021年安徽商贸职业技术学院人文社科研究重点项目“加快构建对外开放下的安徽省粮食安全评价指标体系建构、测度及保障措施研究”(2021KZR04)
2019年安徽商贸职业技术学院“三平台两基地”应用研究项目“协同视角下的安徽省乡村振兴三生融合发展研究”(2019ZDF07)
关键词
安徽省
耕地资源利用
粮食安全
Anhui Province
utilization of cultivated land resources
food security
作者简介
第一作者:张平平(1986-),女,安徽商贸职业技术学院讲师,硕士,从事乡村振兴、土地评价和土地利用规划研究。
