摘要
净生态系统生产力(NEP)是评估陆地生态系统碳吸收量的重要指标,而土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是影响区域碳吸收量变化的主要因素之一,分析LUCC与NEP的变化趋势,对区域实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于阿克苏河流域2000—2020年LUCC与MODIS遥感数据估算区域内各土地利用/覆盖类型的年均固碳速率,借助PLUS模型模拟未来40 a的LUCC,预测未来40 a流域NEP时空变化趋势。结果表明:(1)近20 a流域内总NEP呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.136 Mt C·(10a)-1,林地平均固碳速率最高;(2)未来40 a阿克苏河流域总碳吸收量在不断上升。林地面积的增加是阿克苏河流域碳吸收量上升的主要途径,生态保护工程的积极性对流域内碳吸收量起到关键作用。
Net Ecosystem Productivity(NEP)is a crucial indicator for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems,and Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)is a key factor influencing regional differences in carbon uptake.Analyzing the trends of LUCC and NEP is essential for achieving regional carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Based on the LUCC and MODIS remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020 in the Aksu River Basin,the annual average carbon sequestration rate of each land use/cover type in the region was estimated.The LUCC for the next 40 years was simulated by the PLUS model,and the spatial and temporal trend of NEP for the next 40 years in the river basin was predicted.The results show that:(1)the total NEP in the basin has shown an increasing trend in the past 20 years,with an uptake rate of 0.136 Mt C·(10a)-1,and the average carbon sequestration rate of forest area is the highest;(2)the total carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin will continue to increase in the future 40 years.The increase in forest area is the main way of increasing carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin,and the positive role of ecological protection projects plays a key role in this process.
作者
李沛尧
王新军
许世贤
高胜寒
薛智暄
衡瑞
LI Peiyao;WANG Xinjun;XU Shixian;GAO Shenghan;XUE Zhixuan;HENG Rui(Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes General Station of Soil,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China;Xinglin(Beijing)Forestry Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期1059-1068,共10页
Arid Zone Research
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区财政专项“天山北坡典型区水土流失与经济发展关系研究”(213031002)。
作者简介
李沛尧(1996-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用与碳排放.E-mail:lpy88542585@163.com;通讯作者:王新军.E-mail:wjx8112@163.com。
