生鲜农产品的市场需求影响因素与预测——以江苏省为例被引量：1

Influencing Factors and Prediction of Market Demands for Fresh Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

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摘要生鲜农产品是国民市场消费最为频繁的商品之一,对生鲜农产品的市场需求量进行精准预测关乎民生问题,同时还可以为农业生产活动的科学合理化决策提供一定的参考。为实现对生鲜农产品市场需求的精确预测,文章以江苏省作为研究案例,通过分析国民经济、政策投资、市场消费及物流费用支出等因素,从中选取影响江苏省生鲜农产品市场需求量的五个关键指标作为研究对象。将2008—2021年省内相关生鲜农产品市场需求量作为原始数据,基于马尔科夫优化线性回归模型对2022—2026年江苏省生鲜农产品市场需求量的预测结果进行优化。研究结果表明:构建的预测模型通过R2检验、显著性检验,线性回归模型的自变量之间不存在多重共线性,模型拟合度较好。经过马尔科夫模型优化的预测结果能更接近于实际值,减小预测误差。2022—2026年期间,江苏省生鲜农产品市场需求量不断上升且增幅较为稳定。 Fresh agricultural products are one of the most frequently consumed commodities in the national market,and accurate prediction of the market demand for fresh agricultural products is related to people’s livelihood,and can also provide a certain reference for scientific and rational decision-making of agricultural production activities.In order to accurately predict the market demand of fresh agricultural products,this paper took Jiangsu Province as a case study,analyzed the factors of national economy,policy investment,market consumption and logistics expenditure,and select five key indicators affecting the market demand of fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province as the research object.The market demand of fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2021 was applied as the original data,and the prediction results of the market demand for fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province from 2022 to 2026 were optimized based on the Markov Optimization Linear Regression Model.The results showed that there is no multicollinearity between the independent variables of the R2 test,significance test and linear regression model of the constructed predictive model,of which with a high goodness-of-fit.The prediction result after the optimization of the Markov model was closer to the actual value,which reduced the prediction error.For the period 2022-2026,the market demand for fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province continued to rise and the growth rate was relatively stable.

作者张运韦迪 ZHANG Yun;WEI Di(Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou,Hunan 412007,China)

机构地区湖南工业大学

出处《广西农学报》 2024年第1期55-63,71,共10页 Journal of Guangxi Agriculture

基金湖南省自然科学基金,科教联合基金项目(2020JJ7040)。

关键词生鲜农产品需求预测马尔科夫模型多元线性回归模型 fresh agricultural products demand forecasting Markov model multiple linear regression model

分类号 F326.6 [经济管理—产业经济] F323.7 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介第一作者:张运(1982-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为风险管理;通讯作者:韦迪(1998-),男,研究方向为供应链管理。