摘要
蔬菜是人们日常生活的必需品。受供应链中多环节及多因素影响,蔬菜价格呈现非线性、非稳态波动,准确预测蔬菜价格对保障供应链各主体利益及促进供应链可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于供应链视角,分析蔬菜价格影响因素及其对预测结果的影响,构建Spearman-KPCA-LSTM组合模型,提出从影响因素“渐进式”提取有效特征的新型预测方法,并以白菜价格序列为例,对影响因素在不同提取模式下构建的多个预测模型进行对比分析。结果表明:本文所构建模型可有效提取蔬菜价格影响因素的特征信息,预测效果最好。依据经结果溯源得出的因素影响等级,提出蔬菜供应链应加强生产保供能力、供需协调及流通能力、政府科学治理及综合服务能力,实现供应链及价格稳态化。
Vegetable are a necessity in people’s daily lives.Affected by multiple links and factors in the supply chain,vegetable prices exhibit nonlinear and unsteady fluctuations.It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable prices to protect the interests of all subjects of the supply chain and promote the sustainable development of the supply chain.Based on the perspective of supply chain scenario,this paper analyzes the influencing factors and their impacts on the prediction results,constructs the Spearman-KPCA-LSTM combination model,and proposes a new prediction method with“progressive”feature effective extraction of influencing factors.Taking cabbage price sequences as an example,several prediction models constructed under different extraction modes for the influencing factors are compared and analyzed.The results show that the new model can effectively extract the feature information of the influencing factors of vegetable price,and the prediction effect is the best.According to the influence level of factors,it is proposed that the vegetable supply chain should strengthen its production and supply guarantee capacity,supply and demand coordination and circulation capacity,government should scientific governance and imprave comprehensive service capacity,to achieve supply chain and price stabilization.
作者
李弘
吴研洁
杨丽
LI Hong;WU Yanjie;YANG Li
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2023年第6期77-82,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目“供应链场景化视角下蔬菜价格的影响特征提取、智能化预测及稳态机制”(2023LHMS07012)
内蒙古高等学校科学研究项目“基于智能测评的大学生认知能力跃升动力机制及工具设计”(ZSZX21100)
关键词
蔬菜价格
价格预测
蔬菜供应链
vegetable price
price prediction
vegetable supply chain
作者简介
通讯作者:李弘。
