摘要
目前我国育龄妇女生育水平低,总和生育率远低于世代更替水平,“三孩”生育政策的实施还需要相关配套政策的进一步完善。影响育龄女性生育意愿的因素很多,本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,探析家庭贷款对在婚育龄女性生育意愿的影响及生育观的中介效应。研究发现在婚育龄女性平均家庭贷款金额为6.11万元,其中住房贷款占比超过80%,其他贷款占比较小;在婚育龄女性的平均生育意愿为1.93,其中有房贷的生育意愿为1.84,有其他贷款的生育意愿为1.97。通过使用有序Logistic模型分析家庭贷款对在婚育龄女性的生育意愿的影响,结果表明住房贷款对生育意愿具有显著的负向影响;与无住房贷款相比,有住房贷款的在婚育龄女性的多孩生育意愿下降了19.3%。通过替换核心解释变量进行稳健性检验,分析结果不仅验证了基本回归的可靠性,还验证了住房贷款金额越大,在婚育龄女性生育意愿越低。住房贷款影响在婚育龄女性的生育意愿,是因为在家庭收入一定的情况下,住房贷款对生育支出具有挤出效应。异质性分析表明住房贷款对非农业户籍在婚育龄女性的生育意愿的负向影响更大,除房贷外的其他贷款对农业户籍在婚育龄女性的生育意愿有正向影响。造成这种异质性的原因是非农业户籍住房贷款金额较高,对生育支出的挤出效应更大;而农业户籍的其他贷款金额较小,有助于提高家庭当期收入和未来收入预期,对生育支出有一定的支持效应。生育观在住房贷款与生育意愿的关系中具有明显的中介效应,住房贷款通过影响在婚育龄女性生育观进而降低在婚育龄女性的生育意愿,中介效应占比14.03%。这是因为住房贷款能帮助年轻人建立核心小家庭,阻隔长辈传统生育观的代际传递,接受少生优生的现代生育观。为提高育龄女性的生育意愿,建议全社会加强生育支持,降低生育成本;满足育儿需求,缓解女性家庭与工作的冲突;拓宽女性就业渠道,助力增收创收;降低房贷压力,强化住房保障支持;增加农村小额贷款供给,完善农村金融服务体系。
At present,the fertility level of women of childbearing age in China is low,and the total fertility rate is far lower than the replacement level of generations.The“three-child”policy still needs to be further improved by relevant supporting policies.There are many factors that influence the fertility desire of women of childbearing age.Based on the data of the China Family Panel Survey(CFPS),this study explores the influence of family loans on the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age and the intermediary effect of fertility concept.The study has found that the average family loans amount of married women of childbearing age is 61,100 yuan,of which housing loans account for more than 80%and other loans are relatively small.The average fertility desire of married women of childbearing age is 1.93,among which the fertility desire with housing loans is 1.84,and those with other loans is 1.97.Further,the use of orderly Logistic model to analyze the effect of family loans on fertility desire,and the results show that housing loans have a significant negative effect on fertility desire,compared with no housing loans,the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age decreased by 19.3%.By conducting the robustness test by replacing the core explanatory variables,the analysis results not only verify the reliability of the basic regression,but also verify that the larger the housing loans amount,the lower the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age.Housing loans affect the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age,because the housing loans have a crowding out effect on the fertility expenditure under a certain family income.The heterogeneity analysis shows that housing loans have the greater negative effect on the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age with non-agricultural household registration,and other loans except housing loans have a positive effect on the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age with agricultural household registration.The reason for this heterogeneity is that the housing loans amount of non-agricultural household registration is high,which has more crowding out effect on fertility expenditure,while the other loans amount of agricultural household registration is small,and helps to improve the current income and future income expectation,which has certain support effect on fertility expenditure.The mediating effect analysis shows that fertility concept has an obvious mediating effect in the relationship between housing loans and fertility desire,and housing loans reduce the fertility desire of married women of childbearing age by reducing the influence of traditional fertility concept.This is because housing loans can help young people buy houses and build core small families,block the intergenerational transmission of traditional fertility concept,and make it easier to accept the modern fertility concept of fewer and better birth.In order to improve the fertility desire of women of childbearing age,it is suggested that the whole society should strengthen fertility support to reduce the fertility cost,meet the needs of parenting children,alleviate the conflict between women’s families and work,expand female employment channels to increase income,reduce the pressure of housing loans and improve housing security support,increase the supply of small loans in rural areas and improve the rural financial service system.
作者
邱红
李凡
QIU Hong;LI Fan(Northeast Asian Research Center,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第3期20-32,共13页
Population Journal
关键词
在婚育龄女性
生育意愿
生育观
家庭贷款
Married Women of Childbearing Age
Fertility Desire
Fertility Concept
Family Loans
作者简介
邱红(1966-),女,辽宁沈阳人,吉林大学东北亚研究中心教授;李凡(2000-),女,山西临汾人,吉林大学东北亚研究院硕士研究生。
