财政压力、预算绩效管理与财政支出效率——基于新修《预算法》实施的准自然实验被引量：3

Financial Pressure,Budget Performance Management and Financial Expenditure Efficiency:A Quasi Natural Experiment Based on the Implementation of the Newly Revised Budget Law

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摘要实施预算绩效管理是优化财政资源配置、提升公共服务质量的关键举措。借助我国内地地区30个省份的面板数据,以2015年新修《预算法》的实施作为准自然实验,利用合成控制法并构造双重差分模型考察预算绩效管理改革对财政支出效率的影响。研究结果显示:新修《预算法》实施后,预算绩效管理改革在低财政压力地区能够显著提高财政支出效率,预算绩效管理改革成效显著;高财政压力地区的财政支出效率较低财政压力地区有小幅提升,提升幅度约为2.6%。进一步分析结果表明,高财政压力地区并未明显改善财政支出结构以缓解财政压力,预算绩效管理有待进一步落实。基于此,各级政府应全面实施预算绩效管理,强调制度激励、完善法律约束,确保财政资金在制度框架内有效率地运行。 Implementing budget performance management is a key measure to optimize the allocation of financial resources and improve the quality of public services.By using the panel data from 30 provinces in China's Mainland and taking the implementation of the newly revised Budget Law in 2015 as a quasi natural experiment,this study investigates the impact of budget performance management reform on financial expenditure efficiency by adopting composite control method and constructing a double difference model.The research results show that after the implementation of the newly devised Budget Law,budget performance management reform can significantly improve the efficiency of financial expenditure in the areas with low financial pressure,while the effectiveness of budget performance management reform is significant;and compared with the areas with low financial pressure,the efficiency of financial expenditure in the areas with high financial pressure has a slight increase with an increase amplitude of about 2.6%.The results of a further analysis show that the areas with high financial pressure have not significantly improved their financial expenditure structure to alleviate their financial pressure,and their budget performance management needs to be further implemented.This study provides important reference for China to grasp the direction of budget performance management reform in the future,and has important practical significance for China’s new round of financial and taxation system reform.

作者申亮刘浩 SHEN Liang;LIU Hao(School of Finance and Taxation,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区山东财经大学财政税务学院

出处《山东财经大学学报》 2024年第3期54-64,共11页 Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基金国家自然科学基金项目“电商供应链的公平关切决策与协调研究”(71971129)。

关键词预算绩效管理财政支出效率财政压力 budget performance management financial expenditure efficiency financial pressure

分类号 F810.4 [经济管理—财政学]

作者简介申亮,男,河北涉县人,博士,山东财经大学财政税务学院教授、博士生导师,研究方向:财税理论与公共政策。