摘要
为评价黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力,以黄河流域甘肃段4个二级分区为研究对象,初选20个评价指标,利用信息敏感性和相关性分析法剔除敏感性较低和相关性较高的7个指标,最终确定13个评价指标。从系统角度将指标分为水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统,利用熵权法与TOPSIS模型结合的方法计算综合得分,并利用障碍因子诊断模型分析4个二级分区的水资源承载力障碍因子。结果表明:空间维度上,黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力存在空间差异性,龙羊峡以上分区水资源承载力最高,龙羊峡—兰州分区与兰州—河口镇分区水资源承载力次之,龙门—三门峡分区水资源承载力最低;时间维度上,除龙羊峡以上分区外其余3个二级分区水资源承载力均有缓慢上升趋势;人均水资源量、产水模数、人均供水量、人口密度、城镇化率及生态环境用水率是影响黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力的主要障碍因子,建议优化水资源配置、调整用水结构、促使经济发展与水资源承载力相匹配等,以提升及保持黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力。
In order to assess the water resources carrying capacity of the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,this paper chose a set of 20 evaluation indicators initially,targeting four distinct secondary regions.Through an analytical process involving sensitivity and correlation as-sessments,seven indicators that exhibited low sensitivity and high correlation were pruned,culminating in a refined set of 13 indicators.These indicators were systematically organized into four sub-systems of water resources,societal factors,economic aspects,and ecological en-vironment.The composite scores were derived by integrating the entropy weight method with the TOPSIS model.Furthermore,a barrier factor diagnosis model was applied to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity across the four secondary regions.The findings reveal spatial variations in carrying capacity,with the area above Longyangxia station demonstrating the highest capacity,followed by the sections from Longyangxia station to Lanzhou and from Lanzhou to Hekouzhen station,and the lowest capacity observed in the section from Longmen to Sanmenxia station.In terms of temporal trends,barring the area above Longyangxia station,a steady rise in carrying capacity is observed in the remaining three regions.Key factors impeding the water resources carrying capacity in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin encom-pass per capita water availability,water production index,per capita water supply,population density,urbanization rate,and the rate of wa-ter usage for ecological environments.Strategic planning of water resources distribution,restructuring water consumption patterns,and syn-chronizing water resources carrying capacity with economic growth are instrumental in enhancing and sustaining the carrying capacity of the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.
作者
张帆
尹萌
张金霞
ZHANG Fan;YIN Meng;ZHANG Jinxia(Cost and Fee Management Center for Water Conservancy Projects,Gansu Provincial Water Resources Department,Lanzhou 730030,China;College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第4期79-85,共7页
Yellow River
基金
甘肃省水利厅水利工程建设造价与规费管理中心跨市州重大水利工程立项协作推进机制项目(GSAU-JSZX-2023-001)
甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划项目(24GSLK078,202204)
甘肃省高等学校创新基金资助项目(2021B-138)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51509039)
甘肃省科学院泥石流防治技术优化与减灾效果评价人才团队建设项目(GSAU-JSZX-2021-011)。
关键词
水资源承载力
熵权法
TOPSIS模型
障碍度模型
黄河流域甘肃段
entropy weight method
TOPSIS model
water resources carrying capacity
barrier degree model
Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin
作者简介
张帆(1986-),男,甘肃清水人,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事农业水利工程建设管理工作;通信作者:张金霞(1976-),女,甘肃民勤人,副教授,博士,研究方向为农业节水和水土资源高效利用,E⁃mail:jinxiazhang1977@163.com。
