摘要
人工智能及控制设备在生产中的应用,对劳动者就业具有替代效应。当前国内研究大多以职业的人工智能替代风险作为测算对象,较少直接关注异质劳动者的人工智能就业替代风险。本文基于工作任务方法,利用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,选取劳动者个人特征、工作任务和从事职业特征三方面输入变量,运用机器学习模型测算每一劳动者个体的替代概率。依据个人特征将劳动者划分为12个异质性群体,对比分析异质劳动者群体的就业替代风险。结果表明:(1)我国处于低、中、高替代风险等级的劳动者份额依次为52.9%、24.2%和22.8%;(2)“使用互联网”工作任务、所从事职业的“学历要求”和“培训要求”三个变量对劳动者的替代风险影响较大;(3)受教育程度低的劳动者群体的平均替代概率较高,其中处于23~35岁劳动者的替代概率最低;(4)职业流动是化解劳动力市场总体替代风险的有效途径,但其效用对劳动者个体是非对称的;(5)部分高风险劳动者的替代风险倾向于固化,需警惕其替代风险转化为失业风险。
The application of artificial intelligence and control equipment in production has a substitutable effect on the employment of workers.At present,most domestic researches focus on the artificial intelligence replacement risk of occupation as the measurement object,and pay less attention to the substitutable risks of heterogeneous workers.Based on the task-based approach,we use the data from China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS),select input variables including individual characteristics,tasks and occupational characteristics of respondent workers,and use the machine learning model to calculate the substitutable probability of each individual worker.According to individual characteristics,these workers are divided into 12 heterogeneous groups,and the substitutable risks of heterogeneous labor groups are compared and analyzed.The results show that:(1)The proportion of workers at low,medium and high substitutable risk levels in China is 52.9%,24.2%and 22.8%respectively.(2)The three variables of"using the Internet"task,"education requirements"and"training requirements"of the occupation have a greater impact on the substitutable risk of workers.(3)The average substitutable rate of workers with low education level is higher,and the substitutable risk of workers aged 23~35 is the lowest.(4)Occupational mobility is an effective way to defuse the overall substitutable risk of the labor market,but its effectiveness is asymmetric for individual workers.(5)The substitutable risks of some high-risk workers tend to solidify,so it is necessary to guard against the transformation of their substitution risk into unemployment risk.
作者
孙望书
孙旭
Sun Wangshu;Sun Xu(School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Dalian Liaoning 116025,China)
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第2期66-76,共11页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“人工智能驱动的职业流动模拟及2035年劳动力市场技能短缺状况预估研究”(22BTJ032)。
关键词
人工智能
劳动者就业
人力资本水平
替代风险
工作任务方法
artificial intelligence
employment of laborers
level of human capital
substitutable risk
task-based approach
作者简介
孙望书(1992-),女,辽宁铁岭人,东北财经大学博士研究生;孙旭(1974-),女,辽宁大连人,东北财经大学教授,博士。
