摘要
基于1998—2023年中国31个省份的森林资源清查数据,从空间视阈角度出发,利用空间相关性分析探究森林碳储量空间集聚特征,建立空间面板杜宾模型实证分析森林碳储量各影响因素的空间溢出效应与区域差异,进一步采用门槛模型分析不同森林资源条件下,经济发展水平与森林碳储量之间的阈值效用。结果表明:全国省域森林碳储量呈现出明显的空间正相关性;自然地理因素、人口因素、社会经济因素均显著作用于森林碳储量在各省份之间的溢出作用;当森林覆盖率小于0.056 0时,人类经济活动对森林碳储量的影响为负,当0.056 0≤森林覆盖率≤0.149 7时,经济发展水平对森林碳储量的抑制作用减弱;当森林覆盖率大于0.1497时,经济发展水平对森林碳储量表现为正向促进作用。基于此,建议统筹考虑经济社会发展进程中的不同影响因素,着重关注省域之间的地理与经济关联程度,促进区域间森林碳储量稳步提升。
Based on the data of forest resource inventories in 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2023,this paper used spatial correlation analysis to explore the spatial agglomeration characteristics of forest carbon storage from a spatial holistic perspective.An empirical analysis was conducted of the spatial spillover effect and regional differences in factors influencing forest carbon storage through a spatial Durbin model,and a threshold model was used to analyze the threshold value utility between economic development level and forest carbon storage under different forest resources.The results show that there exists a significant positive spatial correlation among the national provincial forest carbon storage.Natural geographical factors,demographic factors,and socio-economic factors all significantly contribute to the spillover effect of forest carbon storage of the provinces.When the forest coverage rate is lower than 0.0560,the impact of human economic activities on forest carbon storage turns negative,and when 0.0560≤forest coverage rate≤0.1497,the repression of economic development level on forest carbon storage attenuates.When the forest coverage rate is higher than 0.1497,the impact of economic development level on forest carbon storage shows a facilitating effect.Therefore,it is suggested that the relevant departments should take into account differentinfluencing factors in the process of economic and social development,and pay more attention to the degree ofgeographic and economic linkage between provinces to promote the steady increase of forest carbon storage ofdifferent regions.
作者
吕洁华
乔雅
王钰
吕昕怡
LYU Jiehua;QIAO Ya;WANG Yu;LYU Xinyi(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《农林经济管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期79-90,共12页
Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL166)。
关键词
森林资源
森林碳储量
空间异质性
空间溢出效应
门槛效应
forest resources
forest carbon storage
spatial heterogeneity
spatial spillover effect
threshold effect
作者简介
吕洁华,女,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事林业经济管理研究,Lvjiehua2004@126.com。
