摘要
依据收集的中国西南地区8种主要桦木科(Betulaceae)乔木树种分布数据、37个环境因素数据,选取19个生物气候因素、15个土壤因素、3个地形因素,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)构建中国西南地区主要桦木科乔木树种分布区预测模型,预测当前(1971—2000年)及未来2070年(2061—2080年)3种气候环境(SSPs126、SSPs245、SSPs585)时中国西南地区主要桦木科乔木树种的潜在地理分布;采用地理信息系统软件(ArcGIS10.8),将8种桦木科乔木树种当前气候环境潜在分布区数据与2000年土地利用(有林地)数据结合,将未来气候环境时8种桦木科乔木树种各潜在分布区数据与2020年土地利用(有林地)数据相融合,分析各桦木科乔木树种的适生区范围、变化趋势及影响桦木科乔木树种分布的主要环境因素。结果表明:①最大熵模型预测的模型精度值均大于0.8,模型预测结果具有高精度和可信度。②影响高山桦(Betula delavayi)潜在地理分布的主要环境因素为温度季节性变化标准差(贡献率37%)、等温性(贡献率23.6%)、坡度(贡献率17.6%)、表层土基础饱和度(贡献率16.6%),累计贡献率为94.8%;影响其他7种桦木科乔木树种潜在地理分布的主要环境因素为年降水量(贡献率36.1%)、温度季节性变化标准差(贡献率18.7%)、海拔(贡献率16.3%)、最冷月最低温(贡献率14.9%),累计贡献率达86.0%。③8个树种主要分布于长江以南地区,其中白桦(Betula platyphylla)、糙皮桦(Betula utilis)、高山桦的潜在地理分布,延伸至陕西、山西、甘肃南部、河北北部、辽宁东部等地。④未来3种气候环境时,川滇桤木(Alnus ferdinandi-coburgii)、高山桦、白桦潜在地理分布,适生区总面积减少1.3%~50.6%;尼泊尔桤木(Alnus nepalensis)、亮叶桦(Betula luminifera)、糙皮桦的潜在地理分布,适生区总面积增加0.2%~13.0%;红桦(Betula albosinensis)、云贵鹅耳枥(Carpinus pubescens)潜在地理分布,适生区总面积在SSPs126、SSPs585环境时呈减少趋势(减少0.7%~4.9%),在SSPs245环境时分别增加2.6%、5.4%。⑤未来气候环境时,各乔木树种适生分布区均向北扩张;其中,川滇桤木、红桦、高山桦、糙皮桦的高度适生区,向北迁移至四川中部、云南北部、西藏东南部地区;尼泊尔桤木、亮叶桦、白桦、云贵鹅耳枥的高度适生区,向东北方向迁移至贵州、重庆、山西、湖北西部、甘肃南部、云南东部等地。
Based on the collected distribution data of 8 major Betulaceae tree species in Southwest China and 37 environmental factors data,19 bioclimatic factors,15 soil factors and 3 topographic factors were selected,and the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to construct the distribution prediction model of major Betulaceae tree species in Southwest China to predict the potential geographical distribution of major Betulaceae tree species in Southwest China under three climate environmentals(SSPs126,SSPs245 and SSPs585)at present(1971-2000)and in the future(2061-2080).Using Geographic Information System software(ArcGIS 10.8),the current potential distribution data of the eight Betulaceae tree species under the climate environment were combined with the land use data(forest land)for the year 2000,and the future potential distribution data of the eight Betulaceae tree species under the climate environment were merged with the land use data(forest land)for the year 2020.The range of suitable habitats for each Betulaceae tree species,their changing trends,and the main environmental factors influencing their distribution were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The model accuracy value predicted by MaxEnt model is greater than 0.8,and the prediction results of the model have high accuracy and confidence.(2)The main environmental factors influencing the potential geographic distribution of Betula delavayi were the standard deviation of temperature seasonality(contributing rate of 37%),isothermality(contributing rate of 23.6%),slope(contributing rate of 17.6%),and surface soil basic saturation(contributing rate of 16.6%),with a cumulative contribution rate of 94.8%.The main environmental factors influencing the potential geographic distribution of the other seven Betulaceae tree species were annual precipitation(contributing rate of 36.1%),standard deviation of temperature seasonality(contributing rate of 18.7%),altitude(contributing rate of 16.3%),and coldest month minimum temperature(contributing rate of 14.9%),with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.0%.(3)The eight tree species were mainly distributed in the region south of the Yangtze River,among them,the potential geographic distribution of B.platyphylla and B.utilis and B.delavayi extending to Shaanxi,Shanxi,southern Gansu,northern Hebei,and eastern Liaoning.(4)Under three climate environmental in the future,the potential geographical distribution of Alnus ferdinandi-coburgii,B.delavayi and B.platyphylla,the total area of suitable living area is decreasing by 1.3%~50.6%.The potential geographical distribution of A.nepalensis,B.luminifera and B.utilis,the total area of suitable living area will increas by 0.2%~13%.The total area of suitable habitats for B.albosinensis and Carpinus pubescens showed a decreasing trend in the SSPs126 and SSPs585 environments(decreasing by 0.7%to 4.9%),but increased by 2.6%and 5.4%in the SSPs245 environment,respectively.(5)Under the future climate environments,the suitable distribution areas of all tree species expanded northward.Among them,the height suitable areas for A.ferdinandi-coburgii,B.albosinensis,B.delavayi and B.utilis shifted northward to central Sichuan,northern Yunnan,and southeast Xizang.The highly suitable areas for A.nepalensis,B.luminifera,B.platyphylla and C.pubescens shifted northeastward to Guizhou,Chongqing,Shanxi,western Hubei,southern Gansu,and eastern Yunnan.
作者
虞亚楠
陈佳卉
殷晓洁
陆双飞
Yu Yanan;Chen Jiahui;Yin Xiaojie;Lu Shuangfei(Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,P.R.China)
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期43-51,共9页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31700467)
西南林业大学博士科研启动基金项目(112003)。
关键词
气候变化
桦木科乔木
地理分布
西南地区
Climate change
Betulaceae tree species
Geographical distribution
Southwest region
作者简介
第一作者:虞亚楠,女,1999年4月生,西南林业大学林学院,硕士研究生。E-mail:2512542421@qq.com;通信作者:殷晓洁,西南林业大学林学院,副教授。E-mail:xjyinanne@163.com。
