摘要
槭属(Acer)植物是川渝地区天然彩叶林的重要组成树种,研究其未来气候变化下的地理分布可为彩叶林的有效保护和科学开发提供决策依据.采用Biomod2组合模型探究毛花槭(Acer erianthum)、扇叶槭(Acerabellatum)、疏花槭(Acer laxiorum)、五尖槭(Acer maximowiczii)、五裂槭(Acer oliverianum)、中华槭(Acer sinense)6种槭属物种在当前(1970-2000年)及未来2050s(2041-2060年)、2090s(2081-2100年)两种气候情景下(低碳排放情景SSP126和高碳排放情景SSP585)的适生区变化.结果表明:由随机森林、广义相加模型、广义线性模型、多元自适应回归样条4个单一模型构建的组合模型的预测结果更准确[平均受试者工作特征曲线下方面积(AUC)值为0.961,平均真实技巧统计值(TSS)值为0.793];年均温差(BIO7)、等温线(BIO3)和降水量季节性变化(BIO15)是影响槭属树种地理分布的主要环境因子;当前气候条件下,6种槭属树种的高适生区集中在四川盆地西缘山地及大巴山东段地区,物种多度高值区位于岷山至大小相岭一带.SSP126情景下,五尖槭、扇叶槭、毛花槭和疏花槭的总适生区面积基本保持稳定,表现为温和的气候变化有利于维持现有槭属树种的生长分布;SSP585情景下,未来不同树种总适生区面积的变化存在差异,表现为五尖槭持续小幅增加,其余5种树种均先增加后减少;未来两种气候情景下,扇叶槭、五裂槭、中华槭的高适生区均发生退缩和破碎化,随排放强度和时间增加,缩减趋势增强;槭属树种的物种多度高值区域整体减少,尤其在岷山、大巴山东段等地退缩严重.可见,槭属树种地理分布对气候条件变化具有高度敏感性,未来气候变化将显著影响其分布格局和物种多度.因此,未来应重点加强6种槭属树种的现有高适生区保护,预先选取未来适生区可能大幅缩减的树种进行迁地保护试验,从而有效缓解和应对气候变化对川渝地区彩叶林树种和景观资源带来的负面影响.
To effectively conserve and scientifically manage naturally colored-leaf forests,it is essential to understand the geographical distribution of their key constituent tree species.This study aimed to investigate the geographical distribution of Acer species in the Sichuan-Chongqing regions under future climate change.The Biomod2 ensemble model was used to predict changes in suitable habitats for several Acer species,including Acer erianthum,Acer flabellatum,Acer laxiflorum,Acer maximowiczi,Acer oliverianum,and Acer sinense,during the contemporary period(1970-2000)and future periods(2050s:2041-2060;2090s:2081-2100),under both low(SSP126)and high(SSP585)carbon emission scenarios.The results showed that the ensemble model constructed from the four individual models(RF,GAM,GLM,and MARS)provided accurate predictions(average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value of 0.961 and average true skill statistic(TSS)value of 0.793).The main environmental factors influencing the geographic distribution of Acer species are the annual temperature range,isothermality,and precipitation seasonality.Under current climatic conditions,highly suitable zone for the six Acer species are mainly located along the western margin of the Sichuan Basin and the eastern section of the Daba Mountains,with distribution hotspots extending from Minshan to the Daxiangling and Xiaoxiangling ranges.Under the ssP126 scenario,the total suitable habitat area for A.maximowiczii,A.flabellatum,A.erianthum,and A.laxiflorum remained relatively stable,indicating that a mild climate change is generally favorable for maintaining the distribution of these species.In contrast,under the ssP585 scenario,changes in the total suitable areas varied among species:A.maximowiczi showed a slight continuous increase,while the other five species exhibited an initial expansion followed by a decline in suitable habitat.Notably,under both future climate scenarios,the highly suitable areas for A.flabellatum,A.oliverianum,and A.sinense are expected to undergo retreat and fragmentation,with these effects intensifying under the higher emission scenario.Compared to the contemporary period,areas with high Acer species richness are expected to decline under future climate scenarios,with serious retreats especially in Minshan Mountain and East Daba Mountain.The geographical distribution of Acer is highly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions,and future climate change will significantly affect species richness and distribution patterns.Therefore,it is crucial to strengthen protection measures in currently identified highly suitable zone and to focus ex-situ conservation efforts on species projected to experience significant declines in habitat suitability.This approach may help alleviate the adverse effects of climate change on colored-leaved forest species and landscape resources in the Sichuan-Chongqing regions.
作者
陈馨
肖欣怡
伍小刚
虞超
张桥英
廖梓延
潘开文
张林
冯毅
CHEN Xin;XIAO Xinyi;WU Xiaogang;YU Chao;ZHANG Qiaoying;LIAO Ziyan;PAN Kaiwen;ZHANG Lin;FENG Yi(Schoolof Geographical Sciences,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009,China;Mountain Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu Institute of Biology,Chinese Academyof Sciences,Chengdu 610213,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Management Committee of Chengdu Longquanshan Urban Forest Park,Chengdu Longquan Mountain Forest Park Protection and Development Center,Chengdu 610000,China)
出处
《应用与环境生物学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期859-874,共16页
Chinese Journal of Applied and Environmental Biology
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0303)
中国科学院西部之光项目(2022XBZG_XBQNXZ_A_003)
国家自然科学基金项目(32201424)资助。
作者简介
通信作者:张桥英,E-mail:qiaoyingzhang@163.com;通信作者:冯毅,304006152@qq.com。
