摘要
传统地质灾害易发性评价中,存在着易发性因子权重选取主观性强、因子分级具有随机性和模糊性等问题。采用单一评价模型只能对地质灾害的易发性进行定性评估,无法定量化评价。针对这一问题,文章基于改进集成算法(XGBoost)和云模型,在辽宁省朝阳市189个灾害隐患点中选择坡度、多年平均降水量、归一化植被指数、高程等12个易发性因子,通过XGBoost分类算法确定了易发性因子权重,拟合准确率为96.5%,达到了较高的精度。在此基础上利用云模型将因子分级的模糊性问题转化为定量问题,建立了朝阳市地质灾害易发性评价指标体系。以朝阳市大东山为评价单元对该评价体系进行验证。结果表明该评价单元的易发程度为高易发,与实际情况吻合,应用文章提出的方法进行地质灾害易发性评价的精度较高。
In the conventional process of geological hazard assessment,issues such as subjectivity in selecting susceptibility factor weights,randomness,and fuzziness in factor grading are prevalent.The application of a single assessment model can only provide qualitative evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility,lacking quantitative analysis.To overcome these challenges,this study employs an enhanced integrated algorithm(XGBoost)and cloud model.Among 189 disaster potential points in Chaoyang City,twelve susceptibility factors including slope,meteorological conditions,vegetation coverage and elevation were selected.The XGBoost classification algorithm was used to determine susceptibility factor weights.The results showed that the algorithm classification achieved high performance with fitting accuracy of 96.5%.On this basis,the cloud model was employed to transform the fuzzy factor grading into a quantitative problem,establishing a susceptibility evaluation index system for geological hazards in Chaoyang City,thereby assessing their susceptibility.To validate the evaluation index system,the Dadongshan landslide in Chaoyang City was selected as the assessment unit.Results indicate a high susceptibility level for this evaluation unit,consistent with actual conditions.The methodology proposed in this study is promising and can offers reference for evaluating geological hazard susceptibility.
作者
张威
胡舫瑞
綦巍
彭琳
王咏林
陈枫
ZHANG Wei;HU Fangrui;QI Wei;PENG Lin;WANG Yonglin;CHEN Feng(Liaoning Province Natural Resources Affairs Service Center,Shenyang,Liaoning 110044,China)
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2023年第6期136-145,共10页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
关键词
XGBoost
易发性因子权重
云模型
易发性评价
地质灾害
XGBoost
susceptibility factor weights
cloud model
susceptibility assessment
geological disaster
作者简介
第一作者:张威(1982-),男,辽宁丹东人,本科,高级工程师,主要从事自然灾害风险方面的研究。E-mail:5869365@qq.com;通讯作者:胡舫瑞(1988-),男,辽宁营口人,硕士,工程师,主要从事地质灾害风险评价与管理方面的研究。E-mail:hufrcug@163.com。
