摘要
从财政效应、产业效应、市场效应、挤出效应和风险效应五个维度分析了商品房预售对中国城镇化进程的影响,并结合制度经济学相关原理对二者关系的非线性特征进行剖析。基于2006—2020年中国地级以上城市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型与门槛效应模型开展实证检验。研究结果表明,实施商品房预售显著加速了中国的城镇化进程,但其对于城镇化的净影响随城市发展阶段的演变而总体呈现先升后降的倒“U”型特征,两个门槛值分别为人均GDP18968元和人均GDP85441元。商品房预售对发展基础条件不同城市城镇化的影响存在异质性,城镇化先行地区具有更高的门槛值,而城镇化后发地区并未能复制城镇化先行地区的经验与模式。应当客观看待以商品房预售作为发展“加速器”的不可持续性,选择合适城市开展试点,推进商品房预售融资功能等方面的改革。
This paper analyzes the impact of pre-sale of commercial housing on China's urbanization process from five dimensions:fiscal effect,industrial effect,market effect,crowding out effect and risk effect,and analyzes the nonlinear characteristics of the relationship between the two based on the principle of institutional economics.Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2006 to 2020,the bidirectional fixed-effect model and threshold effect model were used to carry out empirical tests.The results show that the implementation of pre-sale of commercial housing significantly accelerates the process of urbanization in China,but the net impact on urbanization generally presents an“inverted U”type nonlinear feature with the evolution of urban development stage,and the two threshold values are 18,968.21 yuan and 85,440.67 yuan per capita GDP.For cities with different basic development conditions,the impact of pre-sale of commercial housing on urbanization is heterogeneous.The pre-urbanization areas have a higher threshold value,while the late-urbanization areas fail to copy the experience and model of the pre-urbanization areas.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested that China should objectively assess the sustainability of using pre-sale of commercial housing as a development“accelerator.”Initiating reform in“leading”and“lagging”cities can be seen as a pioneer approach,with the central objective of reform being the attenuation of the financial attributes of pre-sale of commercial housing.
作者
张正峰
孔维龙
胡其玉
ZHANG Zheng-feng;KONG Wei-long;HU Qi-yu
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第10期66-76,共11页
Urban Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD041)——“构建高质量发展的国土空间布局和支撑体系研究”
中国人民大学公共管理学院学术型研究生科学研究基金(2022101420)——“商品房预售对我国城镇化的影响——基于门槛回归模型的实证研究”。
关键词
商品房预售
城镇化
非线性影响
双向固定效应模型
面板门槛效应模型
pre-sale of commercial housing
urbanization
nonlinear effect
Bidirectional Fixed Effect Model
Threshold Effect Model
作者简介
张正峰(1975-),男,山东泰安人,中国人民大学公共管理学院土地管理系教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为土地利用与管理;孔维龙(2000-),男,山东曲阜人,中国人民大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地管理与城乡发展。
