摘要
农产品物流既是保障民生的基础,也关乎现代农业的发展。文中基于湖北省2011-2020年数据,对湖北省农产品物流需求量的相关因子进行分析,采用一阶多变量的GM(1,N)灰色预测模型,构建湖北省农产品物流需求预测指标体系,以灰色关联度计算为依据,选出与湖北省农产品物流需求量相关程度高的相关因子作为预测指标,构建灰色GM(1,6)模型,结果显示预测模型精确度和可信度较高,并根据预测结果提出农产品物流发展相关建议,为湖北省农产品物流业制定规划、提供参考。
Agricultural products logistics is the basis of ensuring people's livelihood and is related to the development of modern agriculture.Based on the data from 2011 to 2020 of Hubei province,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the demand of agricultural products logistics in Hubei Province.It adopts the first order multi-variable GM(1,N)gray prediction model to construct the prediction index system of agricultural products logistics demand in Hubei Province.Based on the gray relational analysis,the factors with high correlation with the demand of agricultural products logistics in Hubei province are selected as predictors to construct the grey GM(1,6)model.The results showed that the prediction model had high accuracy and reliability,and the relevant suggestions on the development of agricultural products logistics were put forward to provide references for the planning of agricultural products logistics industry in Hubei Province.
作者
乔娜
方青
QIAO Na;FANG Qing(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430018,China)
出处
《物流工程与管理》
2023年第10期66-69,74,共5页
Logistics Engineering and Management
关键词
农产品物流需求预测
GM(1
N)
灰色关联度
湖北省
agricultural logistics demand forecast
GM(1,N)
grey correlation degree
Hubei province
作者简介
乔娜(1992-),女,汉族,山西晋中人,硕士在读,研究方向:智慧物流,物流预测;方青(1974-),男,汉族,湖北蕲春人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:物流与供应链管理。
