摘要
消费是畅通国内大循环、构建国内国际双循环新发展格局的战略基点。在数字经济蓬勃发展的大环境下,跨境电商进口成了中国消费升级的新路径。本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)微观数据,以国务院批复同意设立第一批和第二批跨境电子商务综合试验区作为准自然实验,采用双重差分法(DID)实证检验了跨境电商发展对居民消费的影响。研究表明:跨境电商综试区政策使得试点城市家庭总消费增长4.1%,且发展型消费提升多于生存型消费,居民消费结构明显改善;跨境电商主要通过促进消费渠道多样化、提升家庭就业率和缓解流动性约束这三个渠道来推动居民消费水平的提升;跨境电商对居民消费的促进作用呈现出明显的异质性特征,其对交通基础设施更完善、数字金融更发达城镇的高技能年轻劳动力的消费增长效应更显著,而较少惠及欠发达城市或农村地区的弱势人群,可能导致消费不平等问题加剧;跨境电商综试区政策对邻近城市和同省城市居民生存型消费的增长具有空间溢出和辐射带动效应,政策红利有待进一步铺开。综上,本文研究证实了跨境电商发展对释放国民经济需求端活力的关键作用,并为政府在跨境电商领域的制度创新提供了可靠的经验支撑和科学的决策参考。
Consumption is the strategic foundation for unblocking domestic circulation and building a new development pattern of dual domestic and international circulation.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)pointed out the need to“enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development,”and the Central Economic Work Conference in the same year proposed that“efforts should be made to expand domestic demand,and priority should be given to restoring and expanding consumption.”Under the circumstance of a booming digital economy,crossborder e-commerce imports integrate global high-quality commodities and factor resources,constituting a new path for China’s consumption upgrading.In 2021,China’s cross-border e-commerce market size(GMV)reached 14.2 trillion yuan,accounting for one-third of the total retail sales of consumer goods of 44.1 trillion yuan in the same year,and the scale of cross-border e-commerce import users reached 155 million.As a new model of consumption business,increasing support for cross-border e-commerce will create a new and powerful growth engine for Chinese residents’consumption.Therefore,investigating the economic effect of China’s cross-border e-commerce on residents’consumption has practical significance and social value.Based on micro data sourced from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and considering the State Council’s approval of the establishment of the first and second batches of Crossborder E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Area(CECPA)as a quasi-natural experiment,this study conducts a difference-in-differences analysis and empirically examines the impact of cross-border ecommerce on residents’consumption.The results reveal that①the CECPA policy has led to a 4.1%increment in total household consumption in the pilot cities,as well as a 4.2%increment in per capita household consumption,and developmental consumption has increased more than subsistence expenditure,resulting in a significant improvement in residents’consumption structure(after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests,the benchmark conclusion that the development of cross-border ecommerce promotes consumption growth still remains valid).②Cross-border e-commerce promotes residents’consumption level mainly through three channels—enhancing the diversification of consumption channels,increasing household employment rate,and alleviating mobility constraints.③The positive effect of cross-border e-commerce on residents’consumption is remarkably heterogeneous,which is more pronounced among highly-skilled young workers in cities with better-established transport infrastructure and more advanced digital finance,while less significant among disadvantaged people in under-developed cities or rural areas,potentially leading to the exacerbation of consumption inequality.④The CECPA policy has a spatial spillover and radiation effect on the expansion of residents’subsistence consumption in neighboring cities and cities in the same province,so the policy dividends deserve to be further spread out.The innovations of this study include the following:①Unlike most of the existing cross-border e-commerce studies that focus on the supply side,such as trade exports and industrial development,this study takes residents’consumption as the anchor point and attempts to explore the import dividend of cross-border e-commerce institutional innovation and precisely identifies the characteristics of Chinese households attributed to the micro-level large-sample data from CHFS,which has a total of 103,576 observations from 2010 to 2018.②This study innovatively corroborates the positive spatial externality of the CECPA policy,finding that the policy’s promotion effect on household consumption can be radiated from the pilot city to the neighboring cities and cities in the same province,which confirms the great significance of the CECPA policy on the improvement of residents’welfare and provides theoretical support for the further expansion of this institutional renovation.③Through theoretical and empirical studies of the subjective and objective endogenous and exogenous factors that affect resident consumption,this study creatively summarizes the influence mechanism of how crossborder e-commerce development will promote residents’consumption growth from three distinctive dimensions—consumption media,income effects,and liquidity constraints—and also conducts a comprehensive and detailed heterogeneity analysis of the differences in the micro and macro characteristics of the sample,which provides sufficient empirical support and scientific decision-making basis for the local planning of the specific implementation scheme of the CECPA policy.In summary,this study authenticates the key role of cross-border e-commerce development in unleashing the vitality of the demand side of the Chinese national economy.In the future,China should further expand the pilot cities of the CECPA policy;optimize the positive list of cross-border retail imports;and promote cross-border e-commerce toward the direction of refinement,digitization,and compliance.Moreover,sustained efforts should be made to break down urban-rural segmentation,deepen east-west collaboration,weaken the negative impact of the“digital divide,”etc.so that the import dividends of CECPA policy will more and more equitably benefit all people.Only in this way can domestic demand boost as a whole and the roots of the consumption side to construct a new development paradigm of dual circulation would be widely strengthened.
作者
唐学朋
余林徽
王怡萱
姚星
TANG Xuepeng;YU Linhui;WANG Yixuan;Yao Xing(School of Economics,Zhejiang University;Organization and Personnel Department,Southwest University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期137-157,共21页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273127)的资助。
关键词
跨境电商
家庭消费
消费升级
空间溢出
Cross-border E-commerce
Household Consumption
Consumption Upgrading
Spatial Spillover
作者简介
唐学朋,博士研究生,浙江大学经济学院,电子邮箱:tangxp@zju.edu.cn;余林徽,教授,浙江大学经济学院,电子邮箱:yulh@zju.edu.cn;通讯作者:王怡萱,博士研究生,浙江大学经济学院,电子邮箱:12001041@zju.edu.cn;姚星,教授,西南财经大学组织人事部,电子邮箱:yaox@swufe.edu.cn。
