摘要
近年来,我国居民家庭资产负债率呈上升趋势,同时,家庭返贫问题也成为学术界日益关注的热点。在此背景下,将资产负债纳入家庭经济脆弱性的研究范畴,采用2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),以Probit模型作为研究工具,实证研究家庭负债对其经济脆弱性的影响,并厘清其影响机制。研究发现:家庭负债规模的扩张可以通过损害户主健康水平、减少家庭应急储蓄等方式加剧家庭的经济脆弱性。在此基础上,分析了不同的家庭资产负债结构对家庭经济脆弱性的影响。结果表明:家庭持有的资产中金融资产占比越高,越不利于家庭抵御风险,因为金融资产本身风险更大,容易使家庭陷入亏损;家庭负债中住房负债的增加则能够减弱其对家庭经济脆弱性的影响,因为房价上涨的财富效应抵消了部分影响,此外,房屋贷款的增加对应着家庭资产的增加,家庭在面对风险冲击时可以将房屋进行变现。基于此,从家庭自身和社会保障方面提出以下建议:首先,引导居民控制合理的负债规模,避免因过度举债陷入债务风险,引导居民根据家庭自身风险承受能力合理配置家庭资产,避免因金融市场波动造成较大损失,并且保有适当的应急储蓄;此外,社会应建立更完善的健康服务体系、教育补助体系、住房补贴体系,避免家庭因病致贫、因学致贫。
In recent years,the state of household assets and liabilities has been deteriorating,and the problem of families returning to poverty is also important.In this context,assets and liabilities are included in the research scope of household economic vulnerability.The 2019 China Household Finance Survey data(CHFS)is adopted,the probit mod-el is used as a research tool,and the impact of household debt on economic vulnerability is empirically-studied,and its impact mechanism is clarified.It is found that the expansion of household debt can increase the economic vulnerability of households by damaging the health level of household heads,reducing household emergency savings,and increasing household expenditure on education.On this basis,the influence of different asset and liability structures on household economic vulnerability is analyzed.The results show that the higher the proportion of financial assets held by house-holds,the more adverse it is for households to resist risks,because financial assets themselves are more risky and easy to make households fall into losses;The increase of housing debt in household debt can reduce its impact on household economic vulnerability,because the wealth effect of rising house prices can offset part of impact.In addition,the in-crease of housing loans corresponds to the increase of household assets,which will enable households to cash out their houses and solve problems when facing risk shocks.Based on this,the following suggestions are put forward from the as-pects of households themselves and social security:First,the government should guide residents to control a reasonable debt scale,avoid falling into debt risks due to excessive borrowing,guide residents to allocate household assets reason-ably according to their own risk bearing capacity,avoid large losses caused by financial market fluctuations,and main-tain appropriate emergency savings;In addition,the society should establish a more complete health service system,education subsidy system,housing subsidy system,to prevent families from becoming poor due to illness and education.
作者
徐宏泉
马勇
杜超本
杨思怡
XU Hong-quan;MA Yong;DU Chao-ben;YANG Si-yi(Gansu Provincial Party School/Gansu Administrative College,Lanzhou Gansu,730071,China;State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou Gansu,730000,China;School of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu,730000,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第5期98-109,共12页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
2021年甘肃省软科学项目“兰州白银国家自主创新示范区发展评价指标体系研究”(项目编号:21CX6ZA056)。
关键词
家庭经济脆弱性
负债规模
资产负债结构
CHFS
Household Economic Vulnerability
Scale of Liabilities
Structure of Assets and Liabilities
CHFS.
作者简介
徐宏泉,男,甘肃庆阳人,甘肃省委党校研究生,兰州大学法律硕士,正高级经济师,国网甘肃省电力公司法律合规部副主任;马勇,甘肃平凉人,国网甘肃省电力公司法律部高级主管;杜超本,男,陕西周至人,国网甘肃省电力公司法律部专责;通讯作者:杨思怡,女,陕西咸阳人,兰州大学经济学院硕士研究生。
