降低贫困脆弱性更有效的政策:直接补贴还是保险?——以宁夏回族自治区Y县为例被引量：8

Seeking More Effective Policies to Reduce the Vulnerability of Poverty: Direct Subsidies or Insurance?——A Case Study on Y County in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

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摘要至2018年末,我国还有1660万农村人口尚未脱贫,已脱贫农户还存在着较大的返贫风险,降低贫困脆弱性成为未来扶贫工作的关键,直接补贴和保险是政府预防和化解贫困户风险的两种常用政策。在理论分析的基础上,基于宁夏回族自治区Y县全部建档立卡贫困户的微观数据,运用分位数回归模型比较了两种政策对贫困户脆弱性的影响差异,并讨论了两种政策对不同脆弱性特征贫困户所产生的效果。结果表明:直接补贴不仅无法降低贫困户的脆弱性,反而会增加其陷入贫困的可能,且脆弱性高的贫困户比脆弱性低的贫困户更易遭受这样的影响;而保险却能有效降低贫困农户的脆弱性,只是低脆弱性贫困户比高脆弱性贫困户受益更大。可见,在当前脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴衔接的关键时期,保险是防范和化解风险更有效的政策工具。只有大力创新保险产品,推广保险扶贫政策,才会提高扶贫资金的边际减贫效率,这也体现了我国扶贫政策从"输血型"向"造血型"、从干预型向半市场化、市场化过渡的根本特征。 By the end of 2018,there are still 16.6 million rural people in our country who have not yet been lifted out of poverty,and possiblities remain for those to return to poverty among farmers who have been lifted out of poverty.Thus reducing the vulnerability of poverty has become vitally important to poverty alleviation in the future,of which direct subsidy and insurance are two common policies adopted by the government.On the basis of the theoretical analysis,based on the micro-data of all the registered poor households in the Y county of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,the effect of two policies on the vulnerability of the poor households is compared by using the quantile regression model.The results indicate that direct subsidy cannot reduce the vulnerability of poor households,instead it increases the possibility for them to stay in poverty,and the poor households with high vulnerability are more vulnerable than the poor households with low vulnerability towards such effects.Insurance however can effectively reduce the vulnerability of poor households,and the low vulnerable poor households can benefit more than the high vulnerable poor households.Thus the insurance is proved to be a more effective policy tool for preventing and resolving the risks during the vital stage for the country’s poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.It is high time for innovation of insurance products and popularization of insurance poverty alleviation policy so as to improve the marginal poverty reduction efficiency of the country’s poverty alleviation funds.This also shows the transition of poverty alleviation policy from"blood transfusion"to"blood generation"and from intervention to semimarketization and marketization.

作者和萍付梦雪吴本健 HE Ping;FU Meng-xue;WU Ben-jian(School of Economics,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081)

机构地区中央民族大学经济学院

出处《中央民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第1期89-98,共10页 Journal of Minzu University of China(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基金国家社科基金项目“保险在精准扶贫中的作用机制与模式选择研究”(17BJL099) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“多维贫困视角下少数民族反贫困与基本公共服务均等化研究”(17JJD850006)研究成果.

关键词直接补贴保险扶贫贫困脆弱性 direct subsidy insurance poverty alleviation poverty vulnerability

分类号 F323.8 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介和萍(1972—),女,宁夏盐池人,中央民族大学经济学院副教授,经济学博士,主要从事区域经济与金融、反贫困研究;付梦雪(1996—),女,河北迁安人,中央民族大学经济学院硕士研究生,主要从事区域经济与金融研究;吴本健(1986—)男,湖南城步人,中央民族大学经济学院副教授,管理学博士,主要从事发展经济与反贫困研究。