摘要
在研究宁夏回族自治区房地产经济发展特点的基础上,选取房价增长率/实际GDP增长率、房价收入比、房地产开发投资/固定资产投资率(%)、房屋空置率(%)、房地产投资额增长率/GDP增长率、房地产贷款增长率/金融机构贷款增长率共6个预警指标建立了宁夏房地产泡沫预警模型,随后利用功效系数法对2008-2020年宁夏房地产泡沫进行时空动态演变分析,预警结果表明宁夏房地产泡沫总体处于不断波动的阶段,并有向好发展的趋势,各地级市泡沫水平与地理区位密切相关。据此相应的提出消除泡沫、规避风险的宁夏房地产行业发展新方向、新角度、新层次,不断加强推行房地产行业“去库存”政策,重点监测关注“房屋空置率”指标,以此推进宁夏房地产行业健康有序发展。
On the basis of studying the characteristics of real estate economic development in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,six early warning indexes are selected,including the growth rate of house price/real GDP,the ratio of house price to income,the rate of real estate development investment/fixed asset investment(%),the rate of housing vacancy(%),the growth rate of real estate investment/GDP growth rate,and the growth rate of real estate loans/the growth rate of loans from financial institutions The bubble early warning model is then used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of the real estate bubble in Ningxia in the past 2008-2017 years by the method of efficiency coefficient.The early warning results show that the real estate bubble in Ningxia is in the stage of continuous fluctuation and has a good trend of development.Accordingly,a new direction,a new angle and a new level for the development of Ningxia's real estate industry to eliminate bubbles and evade risks are put forward accordingly.The policy of"de Stocking"in the real estate industry is constantly strengthened,and the monitoring of housing vacancy rate is focused on,so as to promote the healthy and orderly development of Ningxia's real estate industry.
出处
《中国房地产金融》
2023年第3期24-32,共9页
China Real Estate Finance
基金
华中科技大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助(2019WKYXZX013)。
关键词
功效系数法
房地产泡沫
预警
efficiency coefficient method
real estate bubble
early warning
作者简介
蔡文杰(1985-),女,汉族,湖北洪湖人,华中科技大学公共管理学院副教授,硕士研究生导师,研究方向为土地与住房政策、住房保障;通讯作者:吕子毅(1997-),男,汉族,河北保定人,华中科技大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为城市经济与管理、城市地理。
