摘要
以吉林省为例,借鉴马斯洛需求理论开展各地级市分层次用水需求识别,构建“省-市”两级用水总量控制指标初始分配指标体系,基于充分保障区域用水的刚性需求,引入刚性需水量对传统破产理论准则进行改进。选取人口-用水总量基尼系数、GDP-用水总量基尼系数、人均综合用水量、万元GDP用水量4个指标评价用水总量控制指标分解方案的社会经济稳定性。研究结果表明,改进破产理论方法在省级用水总量控制指标分解中具有较高适用性,分解结果符合各地级市未来发展用水趋势,且均能满足各地区发展的刚性用水需求,有效提升了地区用水公平性与稳定性。具体体现在:与2020年实际分解方案相比,吉林省人口与用水总量匹配程度稳定性、GDP与用水总量匹配程度稳定性分别提升了11.03%、9.97%;大部分地级市用水水平与用水效率较现状年均有明显提升。与采用传统破产理论分解方案相比,吉林省人口与用水总量匹配程度稳定性、GDP与用水总量匹配程度稳定性分别提高了33.77%、18.32%;各地级市用水水平与用水效率变化更为合理。本研究可为各级水行政主管部门开展精细化用水管理提供参考借鉴,同时对于健全最严格水资源管理制度体系具有一定的技术价值。
It is of great significance to breakthrough the"last mile"system construction in the most stringent water resources management by disaggregating the provincial total water use control index into prefecture-level city administrative units.Taking Jilin Province as an example,the initial allocation system of the total water consumption control index at the“province-city”level was established by combining the level of social and economic development and water resources conditions in various regions.Then,the hierarchical identification of water demand in each prefecture-level city was carried out based on Maslow’s demand theory.On this basis,the provincial total water consumption control index was decomposed into prefecture-level cities using the improved bankruptcy theory.Four indexes of population-total water consumption Gini coefficient,GDP-total water consumption Gini coefficient,per capita comprehensive water consumption and water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP were selected to evaluate the social and economic stability of the provincial and municipal levels.The results showed that the improved bankruptcy theory method had high applicability in the decomposition of provincial total water consumption control indicators.The decomposition results of total water consumption control indicators were in line with the future development trend of water consumption in various prefecture-level cities,which solved the problem of unreasonable water distribution of small users in the traditional bankruptcy theory method.The decomposition indicators could meet the rigid water demand of regional development and effectively improve the fairness and stability of regional water consumption.Specifically reflected in:①compared with the actual decomposition scheme in 2020,the stability of the matching degree between population and total water consumption and GDP and total water consumption in Jilin Province increased by 11.03%and 9.97%,respectively.Among the nine prefecture-level cities,the water consumption level of eight prefecture-level cities had improved,and only Siping City had reduced the water consumption level by 31.8%due to the mismatch between the future development trend and the population change trend.The water use efficiency of seven prefecture-level cities increased by more than 10%,and the water consumption efficiency of two prefecture-level cities decreased due to the backwardness of their industrial structure.②Compared with the traditional bankruptcy theory decomposition scheme,the stability of the matching degree between population and total water consumption and the stability of the matching degree between GDP and total water consumption in Jilin Province increased by 33.77%and 18.32%,respectively.Among the nine prefecture-level cities,the improved bankruptcy theory method considered multiple indicators other than the water demand index in the traditional bankruptcy theory,and the final water consumption level and water consumption efficiency changes of each prefecture-level city were more reasonable.The problem of unreasonable water distribution of small and medium-sized users in the traditional bankruptcy theory was solved by the improved bankruptcy theory proposed,which provided a reference method for water administrative departments at all levels to carry out refined water management.At the same time,it had certain technical value in improving the strictest water resources management system.
作者
王文睿
王婷
刘彬
游进军
贺华翔
WANG Wenrui;WANG Ting;LIU Bin;YOU Jinjun;HE Huaxiang(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期780-789,共10页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52209042)
河北省重点研发计划项目(21374201D)。
关键词
用水总量控制指标分解
破产理论
同损失准则
分层次需水
社会经济稳定性
index decomposition of total water consumption control
bankruptcy theory
constrained equal losses rule
hierarchical water requirement
socioeconomic stability
作者简介
王文睿(1998-),男,河北沧州人,主要从事水文与水资源研究。E-mail:1335681912@qq.com;通信作者:王婷(1990-),女,江苏南京人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事复杂水资源系统模拟与调控研究。E-mail:wangt90@iwhr.com。
