摘要
以历史径流为依据的清江梯级调度规则难以适应气候变化需求,必然对梯级水库的安全稳定运行和兴利效益发挥带来影响。基于清江流域空间数据和观测数据,采用SWAT模型,运用统计降尺度方法模拟3种情景下流域内各站点的未来气象数据,进而对径流进行模拟,并对隔河岩水电站发电量变化进行分析。结果表明:未来时期RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5共3种气候情景下,清江流域出口长阳站多年平均径流呈上升趋势,年均径流增幅分别为6.0%、8.7%和13.2%;隔河岩水电站在上述3种情景下近期(2020—2045年)、中期(2046—2070年)和远期(2071—2100年)多年平均发电量增幅分别为3.4%~5.1%、7.7%~10.3%和13.4%~16.0%。该研究可为气候变化条件下清江流域水资源管理与隔河岩水电站发电调度运行提供参考。
The cascade regulation of the Qingjiang River based on historical runoff is difficult to adapt to the needs of climate change,which will inevitably affect the safe and stable operation of cascade reservoirs and the development of profits.The SWAT model was built based on the spatial data and observation data of the Qingjiang Basin,and the future meteorological data of each station in the basin under the three scenarios were simulated by using the statistical downscale model.Then the runoff was simulated,and the power generation change of the Geheyan Hydropower station was analyzed.The results show that the simulated annual average runoff of the Changyang Station under three Climate scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future is on the rise,and the annual average runoff increase is 6.0%,8.7%and 13.2%,respectively.Under the above three scenarios,the average generation capacity of the Geheyan Hydropower Station increases by 3.4%~5.1%,7.7%~10.3%and 13.4%~16.0%in 2020-2045,2046-2070 and 2071-2100,respectively.This study can provide a theoretical reference for water resources management and power generation operation of the Geheyan Hydropower Station in the Qingjiang River Basin under climate change.
作者
孟虹池
李英海
欧阳硕
郭家力
杨苑
兰回归
MENG Hongchi;LI Yinghai;OUYANG Shuo;GUO Jiali;YANG Yuan;LAN Huigui(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Ministry of Education,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hydrological Bureau of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《水利水运工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期42-51,共10页
Hydro-Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179018)
湖北省教育厅科学技术研究项目(D20201201)。
关键词
气候变化
SWAT模型
统计降尺度模型
水文响应
水电站调度
清江流域
climate change
SWAT model
statistical downscaling model
hydrological response
hydropower station operation
Qingjiang River Basin
作者简介
孟虹池(1998-),女,吉林长春人,硕士研究生,主要从事气候变化条件下水文响应与水库调度方面的研究。E-mail:menghongchi@qq.com;通信作者:李英海(E-mail:liyinghai@ctgu.edn.cn)。
